Rewind a year and this game would be a mismatch. Man City were on their way to an unprecedented fourth consecutive title, while Nottingham Forest were scrambling to avoid relegation. Now the clubs sit in 3rd and 4th place in the EPL separated by just one point. Last year it was Nottingham Forest that had points deducted for breaching the league’s financial rules; this year it could be City. And in the last meeting between these two teams, Nottingham Forest ran out 1-0 winners.
Nottingham Forest’s Rise…
Funded by the Greek billionaire, Evangelos Marinakis, when Forest were promoted to the EPL in 2022, they slightly lost their minds in a bid to buy survival. In a crazy and chaotic transfer window, they signed 21 new players and several more in the January window. Any manager would have struggled to integrate that many new players into a coherent team.
The turning point came with the appointment of Nuno Espírito Santo. The transfer market policy switched from quantity to quality and Forest strengthened in key areas, notably with the signing of defender Nikola Milenkovic from Fiorentina and midfielder Elliot Anderson from Newcastle. Forest have the 3rd meanest defense in the League.
With the defensive solidarity of Milenković and Murillo, the rampaging runs of Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga and finishing of Chris Wood, Forest are capable of greatness. They are one of only two side to have beaten Liverpool and they thumped Brighton 7-0 in February.
Consistency can be an issue. Prior to the 7-0 Brighton win, they lost 5-0 to Bournemouth. They have lost two of their last three games (to Aston Villa and Everton), before bouncing back with a 2-1 win over Spurs. But are we at that point where one can add, “yes, but it’s only Spurs”?
Manchester City’s Demise…
As for Manchester City, it’s been a wild season. All seemed well at the start; Haaland was doing his usual scoring-goals-for-fun routine and after 9 games Man City were unbeaten and top of the league, They would go on to take just 5 points from the following 9 games – as few as Southampton and Leicester.
The turning point was Ballon D’Or winner Rodri’s season ending ACL injury in the 2-2 tie with Arsenal on September 22nd. Perhaps nothing has emphasized the importance of the role of the holding midfielder than the sight of Man City’s collapse without Rodri.
Man City and Pep Guardiola have been rightly criticized for failing to adequately strengthen the squad in the summer, especially with some of their title-winning heroes beginning to show their age (Kevin De Bruyne for example). And with Haaland sidelined with injury for much of the season, Losing Julián Álvarez to Atletico Madrid without a suitable replacement has been fatal.
For neutrals, tired of the prolonged dominance of Man City, it’s was both perplexing and enjoyable. The best manager in the world was seemingly flailing, unable to find a solution to the swift descent in the EPL. The European Champions looked out of their depth in the Champions League.
The January transfer window couldn’t come soon enough and Manchester City signed Omar Marmoush, Vitor Reis, Abdukodir Khusanov, and Nico Gonzalez. Meanwhile the integration of bright young talents such as James McAtee freshened up the team and began to reap rewards.
While rarely steamrollering teams, results have improved dramatically and City look set to claim a top four spot. But the FA Cup City’s only chance of adding silverware to their stacked trophy cabinet this season. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
I suspect if you put a gun to Nuno Santo’s head and demanded he pick between Forest gaining a Champions League spot or winning the FA Cup, he’d pick the Champions League. The board definitely would; it’s more lucrative and the prospect of say Barcelona or Bayern at the City Ground next season is mouthwatering.
Forest can “afford” to lose this game – their season will still be judged as a massive success. For City, failure is unthinkable. As boring a prediction as this is, I think Man City’s experience at getting the job done under pressure will be the decisive factor in the game. I’m going 2-1 to City.