Wild Things — Walk Prop Cheat Sheet originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

As betting becomes legalized and more ubiquitous, we’ve witnessed an ever-growing interest in player props. When I polled the audience for what granular data they’d like to see or had trouble scraping, pitcher props were easily the most popular answer.

So I place every day’s probable starters’ 2025 walk and ball rates next to their opponent, plus where that offense ranks in taking free passes this season. This gives us an instant glimpse at the entire board and a solid reference point for our daily parlay.

💰💵 SATURDAY’S (+156) RANDY VASQUEZ + ROBBIE RAY OVER 1.5 WALK PARLAY CASHES — HEAVE HO, TWO IN A ROW 💵💰

Today’s SP Command Metrics, June 28th — (League Average 8.5% BB, 36.1% Ball)

• ARI Ryne Nelson — 34.2 IP; 10.9% BB, 39.2% Ball vs. SF 9.8% Rank 2
• STL Erick Fedde — 87.2 IP; 10.2% BB, 39.2% Ball vs. PIT 8.8% Rank 13
• TOR Max Scherzer — 8.0 IP; 9.1% BB, 35.7% Ball vs. NYY 10.3% Rank 1
• ATH Jacob Lopez — 34.1 IP; 8.8% BB, 36.9% Ball vs. TB 8.1% Rank 22
• NYY Carlos Rodon — 101.2 IP; 8.5% BB, 37.1% Ball vs. TOR 8.7% Rank 14
• PIT Andrew Heaney — 86.1 IP; 8.3% BB, 36.1% Ball vs. STL 8.3% Rank 20
• SD Matt Waldron — 30.1 IP; 8.3% BB, 35.0% Ball vs. PHI 9.1% Rank 8
• BOS Garrett Crochet — 109.1 IP; 7.2% BB, 33.1% Ball vs. CIN 9.0% Rank 9
• TEX Patrick Corbin — 76.1 IP; 7.2% BB, 36.8% Ball vs. BAL 7.7% Rank 25
• PHI Zack Wheeler — 99.0 IP; 6.5% BB, 35.1% Ball vs. SD 8.6% Rank 16
• TB Drew Rasmussen — 84.1 IP; 6.2% BB, 34.4% Ball vs. ATH 8.6% Rank 16
• KC Michael Wacha — 92.0 IP; 6.2% BB, 34.6% Ball vs. SEA 9.0% Rank 9
• SEA George Kirby — 36.2 IP; 5.8% BB, 32.8% Ball vs. KC 6.5% Rank 30
• SF Logan Webb — 107.1 IP; 5.3% BB, 33.6% Ball vs. ARI 9.2% Rank 5
• BAL Trevor Rogers — 16.2 IP; 4.7% BB, 34.0% Ball vs. TEX 7.8% Rank 24
• CIN Chase Burns — 5.0 IP; 0.0% BB, 34.6% Ball vs. BOS 8.7% Rank 14

LAGHEZZA’S LEANS:

Methodology’s relatively simple here — target pitchers with struggles finding the zone consistently (high walk and ball rates), in matchups versus generally patient lineups. Also, make sure the pitcher in question projects for a full workload… if you’re going +6 IP, it’s a lot easier to expect multiple walks. Looking at you, Rocco Baldelli…

Generally, we’ve targeted pairs of high probability walk scenarios to get plus money on our wager but today there’s no need. Ryne Nelson boasts the highest walk rate on the slate against the supremely patient Giants at (+110) on his own. I did a little diving to try and figure out what was going on and apparently it’s a home/road walk split that frankly, I’m not buying.

📝Today’s Action — (+110) OVER 1.5 WALK PROP on Draftkings

Ryne Nelson, ARI O1.5 BB

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 30, 2025, where it first appeared.