The NFL offseason is a season of hope and optimism, but soon reality will set in for NFL teams and their fans. While teams hope for the best, they try to prepare for the worst. However, many of the worst possibilities have no real contingencies.

Some of the Buccaneers‘ worst-case scenarios are pretty obvious. Injuries at key positions could easily sink Tampa Bay’s 2025 season. So, could decisions made this offseason, particularly on defense, be a factor? For as good as the offense was last year, regression is a possibility that would put a fifth-straight NFC South title and playoff run out of reach.

Here are the worst-case scenarios the Bucs face in 2025:

Baker Mayfield finishes the season on injured reserve

When Brady retired, the Bucs’ prospects looked dire until they added Baker Mayfield, who helped redefine Tampa Bay’s identity both on offense and as a team generally. Mayfield was instrumental in the Bucs’ improving their third-down conversion rate. In 2023, the Bucs improved from 19th to ninth among all teams, and in 2024, they became the best team on third down in the NFL, converting 51.1% of their third downs.

The Bucs need only look to Mayfield’s time in Cleveland to see how his absence would affect the team. Mayfield attempted to play through a shoulder injury in 2021, resulting in his second-worst statistical season, which was only surpassed by the following season when he bounced between Carolina and Los Angeles.

Losing Mayfield for the season would likely cost the Bucs both the division and the playoffs. Backup Kyle Trask remains a complete unknown, even after four seasons. With only 32 NFL snaps to his credit, Trask lacks the experience that Mayfield brings to the position, posing an obvious downgrade that the team likely cannot overcome.

The Bucs regret not acquiring a starting inside linebacker this offseason

The Bucs shocked many this offseason by doing next to nothing to bolster their inside linebacker corps. As it stands, the Bucs will begin the 2025 season with Lavonte David and SirVocea Dennis. David is in the twilight of his career, and Dennis’ career has barely begun. Combined, this represents a huge risk for the middle of the Bucs’ defense.

David has been historically durable, but he is 35 years old, ancient for any professional football player, never mind a starting linebacker. Todd Bowles continued to roll the dice on David’s consistency, which could come to an ignominious end at exactly the wrong time.

Dennis is a complete unknown and could tank altogether. He also has issues staying healthy, spending most of last season on injured reserve. If Dennis proves unequal to the task of starting, the Bucs are in the same position they were in last year. If David’s body finally fails him, the defense would become an unmitigated disaster.

The Bucs’ run game regresses to 2022

For years, the Bucs had a middling run game that capped the ceiling on the offense. That changed last year when the potent mixture of the Bucs’ retooled offensive line, Liam Coen’s gap-heavy run scheme and rookie sensation Bucky Irving produced the best run offense the Bucs have had in years. What should keep the Bucs up at night is the possibility that last year was a flash in the pan.

While they enjoyed brief success in 2020 and 2021, Tampa Bay’s rush offense has struggled over the decade since Jason Licht became GM. Since 2014, the Bucs have had the second-worst rush offense by EPA and fourth-worst by success rate. They were dead last in both metrics in the two seasons leading up to 2024.

Last year, the Bucs finished the season sixth in rush EPA and success rate, keeping the offense afloat when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went down with injuries. Even with the departure of Liam Coen, health may be the only thing keeping the Bucs from repeating their ground success in 2025. The Bucs have some depth at running back, but Bucky Irving proved to be a special player last year, forcing 62 missed tackles. Losing Irving or more than one offensive lineman for an extended stretch could hamstring the Bucs’ run game and subsequently the offense as a whole.

Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison do not combine for 17 regular season starts

Injuries can sink any team’s Super Bowl aspirations. The Bucs may be especially sensitive to this problem at cornerback. Jamel Dean is the quiet cornerstone of the Bucs’ cornerbacks, at least when he is on the field. 

Dean missed five games last season and has never played a full season in his NFL career. His health is a big reason why the Bucs drafted Benjamin Morrison this year. The problem is, Morrison is coming off a major hip injury of his own.

The worst thing that could happen to the Bucs’ secondary is having both Dean and Morrison miss time in 2025 at the same time. Over a four-game stretch Dean missed last year, the Bucs defense allowed an average of 31 points per game. Dean is almost guaranteed to miss at least some time, but the Bucs will be in serious trouble if Morrison joins him in the training room.

This article originally appeared on Bucs Wire: What are the worst case scenarios for the Bucs during the 2025 season?