Let’s face it: as everything descends into chaos, we need something to cling to. The two most powerful men in the world are fighting over which one of them gets to be in charge of hoovering up the most money and power, and that does not feel great.
On the other hand, the two most powerful men in the world are both vicious toddlers who entirely lack impulse control. We might as well watch them fight and keep track of just how much this split is going to cost them.
Elon Musk’s halcyon days were short but profitable, a few brief months for him to hoover up as many treats as possible—no-bid contracts, escaping government investigations, and installing his loyalists throughout the government.
Musk’s biggest problem, of course, is that Donald Trump is president. Trump has spent the first months of his administration weaponizing federal agencies. That’s something Musk was totally on board with while he was … whatever his official role was at the unofficial so-called Department of Government Efficiency.
Indeed, Musk’s DOGE boys were instrumental in executing Trump’s mass firings, clearing the way for Trump to install loyalists who will be happy to target Musk.. But what the government arbitrarily and illegally giveth, the government can arbitrarily and illegally take away.
Trump reminded Musk of this on Truth Social, in one of their early salvos in their social media battle Thursday, saying that he could save billions and billions by terminating Musk’s government contracts. He’s not wrong, although the money he’s showered on Musk is a drop in the bucket compared to the catastrophic amount Trump is going to add to the deficit.
Trump can—and likely will—harm Musk in three ways. He can yank Musk’s existing government contracts, he can restart all agency investigations into Musk’s businesses, and he can ice Musk out of deals that were in the works. All told, Musk could be out billions, and that’s not even counting how this fight is shredding Tesla’s stock price.
SpaceX might be out $22 billion
SpaceX, Musk’s private space company with a bad habit of having rockets explode and rain debris all over the planet, had been awarded $6 billion to launch military satellites into orbit. The deal would have given SpaceX the majority of all those military contracts until 2036.
If Trump pulls this contract, that’s a real blow to SpaceX in that the market for private space companies, while very lucrative, is very small, so Musk isn’t going to be able to easily make up that $6 billion elsewhere.
NASA had also awarded SpaceX a different launch contract, this one for $100 million for telescope launch services. While $100 million is nothing to the richest man on the planet, it’s fun to think about him losing it nonetheless.
Those are just the most recent treats SpaceX got, however. Reuters estimates that Trump could nuke about $22 billion in government contracts with the company.
Tesla could lose more than just its stock value
It’s tougher to calculate how much Trump’s fit of pique is going to cost Tesla, but it definitely is going to run at least 10 figures.
Even before this breakup, Tesla had already suffered a loss when the government decided not to give it a $400 million contract to provide armored vehicles for the military.
It’s not clear how many contracts Tesla has with the government. The Associated Press reported that Tesla has received $41.9 million in government contracts over the years. Tesla also makes billions each year selling regulatory credits, a ridiculous arrangement where governments give Tesla “credits”—aka money—for making electric cars. Tesla then has an excess of those credits that it can sell to other carmakers so that they can all pretend this somehow reduces pollution. Tesla made close to $3 billion in 2024 alone by doing this.
Tesla will also lose the incredible showmanship and sales skills of both Trump and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
Elon, please enjoy the full attention of the administrative state
Just as Trump needed to win the presidency in order not to go to jail, Musk needed Trump to win the presidency in order not to have to pay the government millions in fines.
When Trump took office in 2025, Musk’s companies were under investigation by at least 11 federal agencies. Impressive! Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) estimated that getting out from under those could allow Musk to duck at least $2.37 billion. Most of that is about Tesla, which faced $1.8 billion in penalties and a criminal investigation over Tesla’s autopilot features.
While Musk was in Trump’s good graces, he could count on government agencies to make those investigations go away, but now that he’s not, it’s likely Attorney General Pam Bondi would be happy to have the Department of Justice resume scrutiny of Musk.
Trump has largely defanged the Securities and Exchange Commission, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get the SEC to remember that Musk failed to file a timely report of his Twitter stock purchases while he was getting ready to buy the company. The SEC might also recall it was investigating Musk’s creepy brain-chip company, Neuralink, after Musk lied about the horrific deaths resulting from the company’s experiments on monkeys.
It’s not just that there are existing investigations—Trump also has the power to investigate Musk and his companies for anything he wants. That executive order is going to be incredible.
Wither the Golden Dome?
The biggest potential hit to Musk’s bottom line is losing out on the giant pile of money that Trump is going to light on fire to build the Golden Dome, a missile shield that most definitely will not work. SpaceX had partnered with Peter Thiel’s Palantir and Palmer Luckey’s Anduril, the worst possible blunt rotation, to build this boondoggle. Estimates of the total cost range anywhere from $119 billion to $6.4 trillion.
The House had tucked close to $25 billion for the dome into the 2025 budget. Better yet, before Musk’s fall from grace, the project looked like it was set to drag on for years, achieving only a demonstration phase by 2028. The question here is whether Thiel and Luckey will leave Musk bleeding on the battlefield and push forward to get that paper, or leave with him.
While Trump has multiple ways to attack Musk, Musk really has only one tool in his toolbox: money. However, Musk has a staggering amount of money, and he’s just fine spending that money on things that will hurt Trump. The man bought the presidency for the relatively low price of $250 million or so, and he can easily spend 10 times that if he decides to back another horse.
God, we’re going to have to think about Ron DeSantis again
As things with Trump sour, Musk may turn his attentions back to his first choice for 2024, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the least charismatic person alive. DeSantis, ever the opportunist, had his PAC immediately send a fundraising email defending Musk. Apparently DeSantis is inclined to forget and forgive how badly Musk screwed up his campaign launch when Twitter completely failed during the Spaces streaming event announcing his run.
Time to learn which House and Senate Republicans are for sale
Even before this messy public spat, House Republicans were working to soothe Musk in order to make sure he kept the cash spigot fully open and to ensure he doesn’t use his prodigious fortune against them.
Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican, is definitely down with Musk, saying, “I love what Elon’s doing, and I hope he keeps doing it.” Well, of course Gonzales thinks that, as Musk gave him $800,000 last year.
Senators Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, and Thom Tillis had aligned themselves with Musk’s criticisms of Trump’s Big Beautiful Disaster, but it’s not clear yet if they’re open to killing the bill for the right price.
What if Musk goes full Third Way?
Despite the fact that the American political system is in no way well-suited for a third party to succeed on a large scale, Musk is already musing about starting a new political party. Of course, he did it in the stupidest way possible: a poll on X.
There’s always been a cult of personality around Musk, but he’s lost quite a bit of luster lately. Tesla is a punchline, where it was once seen as an unstoppable juggernaut led by a genius. Additionally, Musk made himself the face of brutal government cuts. It turns out that firing hundreds of thousands of people while destroying the government does not make you particularly popular at parties. That doesn’t mean that Musk can’t throw a lot of money at this dumb idea just to make Trump miserable.