On Tuesday, Iowa Democrat Catelin Drey stunned Republicans by winning a deep-red state Senate seat, breaking the GOP’s supermajority in Des Moines.
Her 10-percentage-point victory in state Senate District 1 over Republican Christopher Prosch, according to the unofficial election results, is the latest in a run of Democratic special election wins that are rattling the GOP ahead of next year’s midterms.
The district, anchored in the Sioux City area, had been solidly Republican. President Donald Trump carried it by 12 points in 2024, according to data from The Downballot, and GOP state Sen. Rocky De Witt won by 10 points just three years ago, before he died in June. Drey’s double-digit margin marks a 22-point swing from Trump’s result—an electoral earthquake in a district long considered safely conservative.
This kind of shift is precisely what Republicans fear when they draw their districts. Even a small portion of that change could cause their gerrymanders to fall apart.
Drey will serve the rest of De Witt’s term, which runs through 2027, but the immediate stakes are enormous. Her victory, coupled with Democrat Mike Zimmer’s January flip, reduces the GOP’s edge in the Iowa state Senate to 33 to 17. Crucially, Republicans can no longer rubber-stamp Gov. Kim Reynolds’ judicial and cabinet picks, which require a two-thirds vote.
The upset reflects a broader pattern. In every prior Iowa special election this year, Democrats have outperformed 2024 results. In the 1st District, where Trump and De Witt both hit 55%, Drey reversed the script.
But it wasn’t luck. The contest drew unusual attention, and Democrats swamped their opponent in fundraising. By mid-August, Drey had collected more than $160,000 compared to Prosch’s $20,000. The national parties also pumped into tens of thousands of dollars, but the Democratic National Committee also deployed more than 30,000 volunteers, which may have tipped the scales.
Prosch leaned on the usual culture-war script, running ads of Drey with pink hair and calling her a radical who supported “open borders.” She disarmed the attack with humor.
“I think I looked great with pink hair, but the upkeep was exhausting,” she said in a response ad. “My ‘kooky ideas’ are fully funding our public schools, making housing and child care more affordable, and putting more money back in the pockets of working Iowans.”
Now that they’ve lost, Republicans are scrambling to explain away the defeat, blaming what they called “a flood of national money.” But Drey’s ability to connect with voters proved far more decisive than outside cash.
Meanwhile, Democrats celebrated.
“Catelin’s agenda of fully funding public schools, affordable childcare and housing, and putting money in the pockets of working Iowans is a clear rejection of the Republican agenda led by Kim Reynolds and the Senate Republicans that have failed Iowans,” said state Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner.
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, framed the upset as a warning shot.
“As Trump and Republicans wreck the economy and erode democracy with power-grabbing schemes, Democrats’ special election wins should send a flashing warning to the GOP: voters are rejecting the failing MAGA agenda and leaving Republican candidates in the dust,” she added.
National Democrats also weighed in.
“Iowans are seeing Republicans for who they are: self-serving liars who will throw their constituents under the bus to rubber stamp Donald Trump’s disastrous agenda—and they’re ready for change,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said.
Prosch’s record didn’t help. The media consultant has come under fire for incendiary remarks, including a 2022 comparison of abortion-rights supporters to Nazis. He also said that women impregnated by rape or incest should be forced to give birth.
Drey, founder of the progressive grassroots group Moms for Iowa and an employee at a marketing firm, offered voters a stark contrast. Her campaign quickly became a rallying point not just for Iowa Democrats but also for three contenders hoping to take on Republican Sen. Joni Ernst next year. Nathan Sage, Josh Turek, and Zach Wahls, all running for the state’s Democratic Senate nomination, joined her on the trail in Sioux City.
Special elections are often unpredictable and have low voter turnout. However, since Trump’s second term began, Democrats have continued to win them. And with his approval sinking nationally—and even dipping underwater in Iowa—Drey’s win in a red patch of Iowa looks less like a fluke than a flashing sign that Republican dominance in the Hawkeye State is cracking.