Republicans in this fall’s two governor’s races are clinging to President Donald Trump, despite running in left-leaning states. It’s a strange strategy, one made all the stranger by the fact that one of those Republicans is aware of the liability Trump poses to her campaign.
In audio obtained by the news outlet Dogwood, Virginia’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Winsome Earle-Sears, admits the damage that Trump, Elon Musk, and their so-called Department of Government Efficiency did to her chances. She claims her race against Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger was “neck and neck” until Trump’s reelection and DOGE’s war on the federal bureaucracy rattled Northern Virginia’s D.C.-adjacent suburbs.
“[Spanberger] was throwing that on the left and right,” Earle-Sears said at a Virginia Beach event in June. “Just DOGE, DOGE, DOGE, DOGE and Trump and DOGE and Trump. And so then I started down six points. Dropped me six points in January.”
Later in the same audio, she tries to project optimism—because that’s required at campaign events—but the reality is harsher, as polling shows.
A new poll from Virginia Commonwealth University shows that 49% of registered voters in the state support Spanberger, while only 37% back Earle-Sears. A December survey from the same pollster had Spanberger’s lead slightly narrower, at 44% to Earle-sears’ 34%.
The new VCU poll finds Trump’s approval in Virginia at a dismal 40%. And that’s largely in line with other polling, which shows to be pretty unpopular in the state. Last month, Morning Consult found that 45% of Virginia voters disapproved of the job he was doing as president, while a majority (52%) disapproved.
Worse for Earle-Sears? A CNN poll released Thursday finds that 72% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are “extremely motivated” to vote in next year’s midterms, compared with just 50% of Republican-aligned voters.
Despite acknowledging that Trump is a drag on her campaign, Earle-Sears can’t quit him. Just weeks ago, she went on the right-wing outlet Newsmax to praise Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, claiming it “does so many great things.”
But that’s the catch. In today’s GOP, it doesn’t pay to buck Trump—even when it’s electorally the smart thing to do.