It’s no secret that the Trump administration runs on vibes. The vibes are rancid, but they’re vibes nonetheless. There’s no real strategy at work; just a bunch of vile people spouting off. That’s terrible in the best of times, but as we hurtle toward another unnecessary and stupid war in the Middle East, the administration’s inability to get its story straight is ridiculous—and alarming.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump said that he will decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran. Why two weeks? Vibes, baby! It’s his favorite arbitrary time period. He’s used it so often that late-night host Jimmy Kimmel was able to put together a 12-clip reel of Trump invoking that magical two-week span, but not delivering, including his 2020 promise to announce a health care plan. Then there were the two weeks he was going to take to decide how willing dictator Vladimir Putin was to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. Actually, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has spawned multiple two-week timelines that are proffered and discarded randomly.
Everyone knows Trump is not going to spend two weeks thinking about this. He’s probably not even going to spend two hours. It’s just a reflexive statement he makes so that it looks like he’s doing his job. Generally, you can just ignore it as meaningless and not even bother to check back in 14 days, as he’ll long have forgotten.
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But when it comes to Iran, Trump’s low-key, wait-and-see two-week timeline sounds very different than White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s two weeks.
“Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon,” Leavitt claimed during a press briefing. “All they need is a decision from the supreme leader to do that.” And then? “It would take a couple of weeks to complete the production of that weapon, which would, of course, pose an existential threat not just to Israel but to the United States and to the entire world.”
Leavitt also offered a quote “directly from the president” and, to be fair, it does sound like him.
“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Trump said. So, there is a substantial chance of negotiations, but also a substantial chance there will not be negotiations??
If Iran is two weeks out from an actual factual nuclear weapon that threatens the entire world, it seems a bit odd for Trump to slow-walk a decision about what to do. Nevertheless, the media is pretending that this time around, the two weeks are totally real and a very savvy move. The Washington Post said Trump now “sees more time for diplomacy” and was “dial[ing] back war talk.” Perhaps Leavitt didn’t get the message about the whole “dialing back” thing.
The New York Times framed the magical two weeks as Trump buying himself time and opening up some new options while simultaneously running a piece about how two weeks is Trump’s favorite time period, and it can mean “something, or nothing at all.” That’s some hard-hitting analysis.
Leavitt can stoke the fears of a planet-wide existential threat all she wants, but U.S. intelligence agencies do not think Iran could have a nuclear weapon in two weeks. Rather, their assessment is that it would take several months to a year. That’s got National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard twisting herself in knots since that’s exactly what she said to Congress in March. But after Trump told reporters, “I don’t care what she said,” Gabbard had to blame the media and insist she and Trump are saying the same thing.
The administration has no regard for facts or consistency, but that doesn’t mean we have to pretend this conflict is being approached in any rational, fact-based way. Trump will do what he wants and manufacture the justification he needs … or maybe he’ll just keep kicking the can two weeks down the road.