Many of you are going to hate this, but if Democrats have any shot at reclaiming the Senate next year, it’ll happen through the party’s moderate flank.
I get it. I know some of you are still annoyed over my piece warning that we can’t afford to lose young men to conservatism. One commenter summed up the backlash: “[Kos] used to stand up for our values. Him suggesting we now adjust them to cater to the right is new. And it sucks.”
But let’s be clear: There’s a difference between catering to the right and doing what we need to win elections while staying true to our core values. Purity politics will keep us in the minority. If the left-left wants to win on the strength of its agenda, it has a long way to go in winning over hearts and minds.
A new Echelon Insights poll makes this clear. Asked what kind of party they’d want if the two major parties disappeared, only 6% of likely voters would support a party with a Green New Deal-style agenda focused on ending systemic inequality, breaking up corporations, and promoting full economic and social justice.
Another 13% would support a party that “advance[s] social progress including women’s rights and LGBTQ rights, work[s] with other countries through free trade and diplomacy, cut[s] the deficit, and reform[s] capitalism with sensible regulation.” That’s fairly center-left.
But the best-performing left-of-center message? A middle-class focus—universal health insurance, stronger labor unions, and higher taxes on the rich to help the less well-off. That scored 31% support. It’s not a majority, but it’s stronger than either of the two conservative-aligned options, which together totaled 44%.
Sure, we can quibble with question wording, but the trend is clear: People support equality in theory, but they want politicians focused on their lives. That means better wages (which unions deliver), affordable housing, cheaper groceries, accessible education, and a shot at the American dream. When 75% of men say they won’t do better than their parents, it’s no surprise they’re angry.
Yes, racism is baked into conservative appeal. But maybe that tops out around the 44% of voters drawn to conservative messaging. Republicans can’t win national elections or hold Congress with 44%.
The Senate map for the 2026 midterm elections looks rough on paper. Democrats will defend open seats in swingy Michigan, light-blue New Hampshire, and lean-red Georgia. Meanwhile, Republicans have to defend only Maine and North Carolina. In a typical year, Democrats might gain a seat (or lose one)—nowhere near the four they need to flip for a majority.
But next year won’t be typical. Trump’s Republicans are self-sabotaging with their unpopular “Big Beautiful Bill,” which will likely tank them in the House. Still, the Senate is all but surely out of reach.
Democrats’ next-best pickup targets after Maine and North Carolina? Florida and Texas. That’s how bleak it is. To retake the chamber, Democrats would need to miraculously win all four of those states and hold every vulnerable seat.
Enter the much-maligned “moderates.”
Last year, political newcomer Dan Osborn ran as an independent in deep-red Nebraska. The GOP hammered him with “Bernie Sanders of Nebraska”-style attack ads. They tried hard to brand him as a Democrat.
Yet, on Election Day, he lost by just under 7 percentage points, scoring 46.5% of the vote to Republican incumbent Deb Fischer’s 53.2%, in a state Trump won by over 20 points. That means Osborn overperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by a stunning 13 points.
Osborn is a labor organizer and Navy vet. His platform? Lower taxes on small businesses, raise the minimum wage, legalize marijuana, expand union rights, preserve gun ownership. He backed tougher border enforcement but supported legal pathways for undocumented workers. He wanted to protect Social Security benefits and expand funding for public schools.
As a progressive, I hate some of that. But I love other parts. And more importantly, most of it is opposed by Nebraska’s Republican incumbents. Osborn’s secret? A relentless focus on economic livelihoods while neutralizing Democrats’ social-issue vulnerabilities.
So no, I’m not violating my values by being thrilled that Osborn is exploring a run in 2026. He won’t give me my progressive utopia—but he could help stop the Republican dystopia if he won and caucused with Democrats. That’s a trade I’ll take.
Osborn’s model could work elsewhere, and the path to the majority isn’t through only moderates. If we get lucky, we may see former Sen. Sherrod Brown attempt a comeback in Ohio. And Beto O’Rourke—who very nearly won a Senate race in Texas in 2018—has been campaigning with progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and eyeing another run.
Progressives will have plenty of candidates to be excited about. But if we want a durable Senate majority—one that can one day bring in D.C. and Puerto Rico statehood—we must recenter the party around the economic issues that unify the working majority.
Forget the MAGA base. They’re gone. No one is catering to those A-holes. But a huge swath of Americans simply want a government that improves their lives.
If our brand becomes “we prioritize transgender athletes playing on teams that match their gender identity”—a position opposed by 65% of likely voters, per Echelon Insights’ poll—we won’t win. It sucks to write that, believe me, but losing elections hurts more, as Trump proves every single day.
We can make common cause with voters on what unites us. Here are two other left-leaning causes that polled especially well, per Echelon Insights:
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Raise the minimum wage to $20/hour: 58% support, 37% oppose.
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Raises taxes on those making over $250,000: 68% support, 27% oppose.
Heck, one item in the poll even asked whether voters thought it was “the responsibility of the federal government to ensure everyone has health care.” And guess what? Sixty-two percent of voters think it is the government’s responsibility, while only 34% think it isn’t.
Conservatives keep saying Americans don’t want socialism, but is there anything more socialist than universal health coverage? And Americans support that by a nearly 2-1 margin!
Guys, we can win big on those issues—and more! We can deliver the American Dream. And in doing so, we can build broader support for our fuller progressive agenda over time.
That’s how we win. That’s how we govern. And that’s how we fight for everyone—including the most marginalized—without dooming ourselves to permanent minority status.