Such fears were misplaced. Granted, the Netherlands beat Vietnam 7-0, and there were a couple of 6-0 and 5-0 games, but the gap between the elite and the outsiders had narrowed.
Traditionally strong nations, including Germany, Italy and Brazil, crashed out at the group stage. Colombia, South Africa and Nigeria were hugely impressive in reaching the knockout stage. Smaller nations, such as Haiti, New Zealand and Jamaica, were genuinely competitive. The progression of the outsiders was rightly celebrated. But what if there was another factor? What if the traditional elite are not as good as they should be?
This summer’s European Championship, which kicks off on July 2 in Switzerland, will be the latest test.
Among the 16 teams who qualified for Euro 2025, there are half-a-dozen realistic contenders, distributed somewhat unevenly across the four groups — none in Group A, Spain in Group B, Germany and Sweden in Group C, and England, France and the Netherlands in Group D. All but the Netherlands, ranked 11th, are in FIFA’s top 10 positions in the global standings. Yet none of the six appear to have improved significantly over the last couple of years.
World champions Spain are strong favourites, but they are not perfect. Spain produce more technically gifted players than any other nation — Barcelona playmakers Alexia Putellas and Aitana Bonmati have split the last four Ballons d’Or between them — but sometimes their stars feel too similar. They are overloaded on passers but have few ruthless goalscorers.
Germany once completely dominated this competition, winning eight of the nine tournaments between 1989 and 2013 (the first of those was as West Germany), but they have undergone a major rebuild after their shock group-stage exit at the World Cup two years ago. They are without several veterans, including superstar striker Alexandra Popp. Their run to Olympic bronze in France last year is a positive, but they badly lack proven defenders.
Sweden won the first women’s European Championship in 1984, a reflection of the Nordic nations embracing the women’s game before the traditional powerhouses of men’s European soccer. Their headstart had long-lasting effects: for much of this century, Sweden had the best league in women’s European soccer. Now the more populous European nations are taking the women’s game seriously, Sweden have slipped back — although striker Stina Blackstenius comes into the tournament in great confidence, having scored the only goal in Arsenal’s Champions League final win against Barcelona.
England won the European Championship on home soil three years ago, and the domestic game has progressed significantly in recent years, but their build-up to the tournament has been disrupted. The withdrawals of goalkeeper Mary Earps and defender Millie Bright, who both started every game of England’s runs to major finals in 2022 and 2023, have dominated headlines and hinted at deeper issues with team spirit in Sarina Wiegman’s squad.
Wiegman has won the last two Euros, in 2022 with England and in 2017 with her home nation, the Netherlands. The Dutch look less fearsome these days, largely because Vivianne Miedema, once the most complete striker in Europe, has suffered from three years of injury problems. The former Arsenal forward went into Euro 2022 having scored a staggering 94 international goals at 25 years old. Three years on, she has only added three more.
Finally, France are eternally a mystery, continually producing good players but failing to click collectively. They have never reached the final of a Euros — or a World Cup or Olympics, despite hosting those tournaments in 2019 and 2024. On paper, they have few weaknesses. On the pitch, they often underwhelm.
So what is going on? How did Europe take first, second and third place (Spain, England and Sweden) at the 2023 World Cup, and yet it feels their best sides should be better? Well, there are probably three major shifts happening.
First, in Europe, the outstanding version of the women’s game is now club soccer, rather than international soccer. When the United States was the dominant force, the structure of the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) ensured balance and competitiveness; players were distributed relatively evenly across the league and the national team remained the best side in the sport.
European soccer is very different, concentrating players at a handful of clubs. With more movement of players between countries, and more players being imported from outside Europe, top clubs now hoard players and perform at a higher level than international sides. As a consequence, going from the Champions League to the Euros often feels like a step down in quality.
The second factor is the tactical evolution of the women’s game. It is less individualistic and increasingly collective.
A decade ago, it felt enough for major nations to rely on a couple of stars who would dominate through speed and strength. But the sport has become more complex. Teams defend better as a unit, and opponents need integrated movement to break them down. Teams press higher up the pitch, so opponents need practised passing moves to bypass them.
These concepts can only be perfected on the training ground and, at international level, coaches do not have much time with their squad. It is a clear advantage that Spain can count on almost an entire starting lineup who play together for Barcelona in Liga F — but, again, they are unlikely to be as good as Barca.
Finally, the rise of the underdogs cannot be separated from all this because it is clear the world’s best players now hail from a wider range of nations.
In the 2014 voting for FIFA’s world player of the year award, the top 10 female players hailed from seven traditionally strong women’s soccer nations: the U.S., Brazil, Japan, Germany, France, Spain and Sweden. For the equivalent vote a decade later, in December, the top 10 included Barbra Banda from Zambia, Tabitha Chawinga from Malawi and Khadija Shaw from Jamaica. Meanwhile, the top goalscorer in European club soccer in 2024-25, Ewa Pajor, with 25 goals in 28 games for Barca, will captain Euros debutants Poland, who could not have hoped to qualify without her.
These days, the world’s best players do not always play for genuine contenders. That is not necessarily a bad thing.
The game has improved immeasurably over the last decade in terms of physicality, technical quality and tactical ability. Fewer major players are absent through injury compared to previous tournaments. The lopsided draw will create major showdowns in the group stage and allow at least one outsider to make the semi-finals. Ultimately, one of the six favourites is likely to win the Euros, but their days of expecting huge victories are over.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
England, Germany, France, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Women’s Soccer, Women’s Euros
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