The Bengals offense provided us with multiple right answers in fantasy football last season. Joe Burrow finished with the third-most points at his position, while Ja’Marr Chase was the most productive wide receiver in the NFL on his way to winning the Triple Crown. Beyond that, Tee Higgins was the WR4 in points per game. Running back Chase Brown was the RB12 in overall points with the fifth-most receptions at the position. Even Mike Gesicki was useful in spurts while finishing the season top 8 among tight ends in catches.
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Despite all that, the Bengals were not one of the most efficient offenses in the league. They were and are a dangerous unit, don’t get me wrong, but they were 10th in net yards per pass attempt and eighth in points per game. Very good but not quite in the elite tier.
Yet, they were pushed into so many game scripts that required them to keep pace with opponents, thanks to a defense that ranked 30th in success rate allowed and 27th in EPA per play. As my colleague, Scott Pianowski, affectionately calls this type of outfit, they were the perfect Carnival Team in 2025.
Here, we’ll look at five teams that could have a potent offense paired with an ultra-generous defense this season to create some fantasy-friendly environments for skill-position players.
Atlanta Falcons
I’ve been saying since the end of last season that if there is going to be a “this year’s Bengals” team in 2025, the Falcons are my favorite bet to be the carnival. They have all the right ingredients.
Sticking with the defense, a unit that’s been bottom-10 for years now wasn’t any better under Raheem Morris’ first season as the head coach. Their big moves in the offseason consisted of replacing Jimmy Lake with Jeff Ulbrich at the defensive coordinator spot and drafting two Round 1 edge rushers. It’ll be a big lift for two rookies to completely revive a long-dormant pass rush and both Jalon Walker and James Pearce are lighter bodies on the edge. That could be problematic for a team that already ranked 26th in rushing success rate allowed. It would be a stunner if this isn’t a well-below-average defense again this season.
On the offensive side of the football, there is so much to like. Even if Michael Penix Jr. is still a volatile passer from an accuracy standpoint, he showed the ability to get Drake London the football down the stretch. London led all wide receivers in the final three weeks of the season by getting targeted on 39% of his routes. Darnell Mooney also proved a capable second receiver and Bijan Robinson is one of the best backs in the game.
I’d love to draft Falcons players in hopes that the defense pushes them into pass-heavy scripts and the offense is highly concentrated.
Jacksonville Jaguars
With Liam Coen arriving in Jacksonville after captaining the Buccaneers to a top-5 finish in a variety of offensive metrics, we’re all justifiably excited about the Jaguar attack.
Brian Thomas Jr. is a top-20 pick in Yahoo drafts after a dynamic rookie season. He should be a WR1 for years to come. They added to the offensive firepower by trading up for and taking Travis Hunter at the second overall pick. Those two will put defenses into conflict. If Coen can scheme it up like he did in Tampa Bay and with these weapons in tow, we could be looking at the best season of Trevor Lawrence’s career.
Lawrence and this offense should be tasked with a heavy pass-attempt volume because Jacksonville spent most of its offseason resources fixing Coen’s side of the ball — although Hunter will play snaps as a cornerback. The Jaguars largely left a defense that ranked 31st in EPA per play allowed untouched. It was a necessary sacrifice in the goal of building up the team but it could force the Jaguars offense to throw the ball with high volume in 2025.
While a full leap into the top-10 offenses could be unlikely, we could be looking at a diet version of the 2024 Bengals.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are a completely remade unit with a brand new coaching staff, Ashton Jeanty at running back and Geno Smith taking the place of a revolving, ineffective door at QB from 2024.
The Chip Kelly-Pete Carroll braintrust, along with Smith under center, likely guarantees this team some level of competency on offense. However, they want to be a run-heavy team built around Jeanty and attack teams horizontally in the passing game with Brock Bowers as the lead man. That doesn’t exactly scream “going to the moon” offensively but they’ll be a significantly improved version of last year’s Raiders, who were 28th in points per game and featured a historically bad run game.
Defensively, this team has a huge hole in the secondary. While they are excellent on the defensive line if Christian Wilkins and Maxx Crosby are healthy, their lack of cornerback depth is a massive concern. I can see this team being among the five most generous pass defenses in 2025.
If that’s the case, the Raiders will be in fewer run-first scripts than they’d prefer. Bowers is excellent and Michael Mayer is an intriguing running mate as the TE2. However, they’ll need rookies Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton to step up quickly to work alongside the perennially underrated Jakobi Meyers if the Raiders will need to take to the air more than we expect. My hunch is that Jeanty will need to catch 50-plus passes to justify a Round 1 ADP, while Meyers as the 115th overall player is a big value.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers ranked dead last in defensive success rate and points allowed last year, along with just about any other relevant defensive metric. They added players in both the draft and free agency. Perhaps most importantly, they’ll get Derrick Brown back on the defensive line. However, if all of that gets them from the league basement to just below average this year, it would be a huge win. This is still likely to be a super-generous stop unit that teams can find success attacking.
The Panthers offense took a big step forward in the back half of last season. They were a top-half offense in points scored from Week 10 on and now added Tetairoa McMillan to start at the X-receiver position. If Bryce Young continues to improve on a linear trajectory, they now have the run game and offensive line to be a needle-moving scoring unit.
The Canales and Young partnership looks like a good one moving forward. Even if a top-10 finish is unlikely, I find myself wanting to take mid-round shots on McMillan and Chuba Hubbard, while Young profiles as an ideal QB2 candidate in SuperFlex formats. He’s a lock to outkick his QB24 ADP if he stays healthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A seemingly easy answer to the 2025 Carnival Offense prompt is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were a more efficient offense than the Bengals last season but also had a troubling defense. However, I’m less convinced in the Bucs’ case than I was a month ago. Tampa Bay finished 16th in overall success rate allowed but allowed the fourth-most passing yards. Issues in the secondary and the linebackers’ coverage made its blitz and zone-heavy principles easy to solve, but it wasn’t an outright embarrassment on defense.
The only veteran addition to the defense came in the form of Haason Reddick as an edge pass rusher. Otherwise, Tampa Bay added role players and a Day 2 rookie after spending their first-rounder on wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. Todd Bowles will always have this team playing on a razor’s edge with how blitz-happy his defensive system operates. If the corner play doesn’t improve, they could fall on the wrong side of the cliff this year. But if young guys gel early and Jamel Dean bounces back, there is hope.
Liam Coen’s departure should sting the offense but they have room to regress and still be a top-10 unit. The more consequential issue is the news that left tackle Tristan Wirfs is likely to start the season on the PUP list. Despite another play-caller change, the Bucs’ optimism was based on the strength of the line and overall continuity. A hole at left tackle — a spot once occupied by an All Pro — for at least about a quarter of the season, has to change the calculation. There is more than enough talent at the skill-position spots that this should remain a strong unit even if the top-5 finish in points per game is unlikely to repeat. Overall, I think you just have to be a little lower on the Bucs offense now post-Coen and without Wirfs to start the year.