The Steelers and linebacker T.J. Watt continue to be at odds regarding his next contract. And the Steelers don’t seem to be very stressed out about it.
Even if, as we’ve heard, the current gap between the Steelers and Watt is significant, the gap necessarily will narrow when the final stages of the negotiations begin.
The last time around, those negotiations lasted deep into training camp and the preseason, with Watt holding in and not practicing until the deal was done. It worked, with Watt then getting a record $28 million per year in new-money average.
This time, the Steelers seem to believe (based on our discussions with those familiar with the team’s approach) that, when their best number is put on the table, Watt will take it.
Our guess (and it’s just a guess) is that the Steelers hope to stay closer to the Maxx Crosby range of $35.5 million, with Watt hoping to surge past Myle Garrett’s $40 million per year.
What if, at the end of the day, the Steelers offer a deal worth $38 million per year? Once that offer is extended (if it is), would Watt give up, essentially, $2.1 million per week (based on 18 checks per season) and hold out into the regular season?
Of course, the Steelers could be underestimating Watt’s resolve. If he’s dug in when it comes to matching or beating Garrett, maybe Watt would still say “no” to anything less than $40 million per year.
And if the Steelers hope to regard the Garrett contract as another Cleveland albatross contract akin to the Deshaun Watson deal, there’s another wrinkle to consider. The Micah Parsons contract will undoubtedly match (or likely exceed, perhaps significantly) the Garrett deal.
At this point, shouldn’t Watt wait to see what Parsons gets? The Parsons package will only drive the current market higher, making Watt’s case for more than Pittsburgh’s best offer even stronger.
However the Parsons negotiations play out, the Watt situation is fairly simple. He’ll either accept the Steelers’ best offer, or he won’t. And if the Steelers believe it will be good enough to pay him extremely well but not as much or more than other top defenders, they’ll find out whether he’ll take it.
Watt has considerable leverage. The Steelers going all in this year. They’re 1-11 when he misses games due to injury. Not having Watt would offset everything else they’ve done in an effort to win enough regular-season games to get to the playoffs — and to win a postseason game for the first time in Watt’s career.