Republicans are in for a long, hot summer in Washington, and the blistering sun is only partly to blame. Two new polls show Americans souring on President Donald Trump’s extreme policy agenda.
The polls, from KFF and Fox News, reveal concerning trends about the Republican base, including that non-MAGA Republicans now oppose Trump’s signature legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which passed Congress earlier this week.
Five months into his presidency, voter confidence in the economy remains low. Despite Trump’s big talk of a new “golden age of America,” nearly 6 in 10 registered voters (58%) disapprove of his handling of the economy, according to Fox News’ poll. It also found that fewer than half (48%) say their family is holding steady financially.
If Trump’s troubles were limited to the economy, Republicans could distract voters by turning to the normally safe territory of immigration policy. Except now they can’t. Media coverage of Trump’s brutal deportation agenda has eroded voter support. Trump is currently underwater, on net, in his handling of immigration, according to election analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.
Trump’s problems multiply when voters are asked about his “One Big Beautiful Bill,” his Medicaid-slashing, debt-exploding budget plan. Polls have shown for weeks that most Democrats and independents oppose it, but new data from health policy outlet KFF shows that nearly a third of all Republicans do too.
Overall, 61% of Republicans support Trump’s budget, but that support is concentrated in the party’s MAGA base. Meanwhile, 66% of Republicans who do not support the MAGA movement oppose the budget. Those frustrated Republicans open up an opportunity for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s primary organization for electing Democrats to the House, plans to launch a nationwide media campaign tying vulnerable House Republicans to Trump’s anchor of a budget. That campaign joins an ongoing effort by the Democratic National Committee to fill swing districts with billboards and local advertising touting the budget’s attack on health care and social services.
“From now until November 2026, the DCCC will continue to communicate the harm this bill will cause,” the DCCC said in a memo. “Republicans will lose the [House] majority in 2026 and the Big, Ugly Bill will be the reason why.”
Last month, a coalition of Democratic groups launched “Organizing Summer,” which DNC Chair Ken Martin described as a plan to invest over $1 million in winning various Virginia’s statewide elections this November. Unions are also investing heavily in linking Republican lawmakers with Trump’s budget plan, including a nationwide bus tour led by the AFL-CIO.
This year marks the first major test of Martin’s ability to use the DNC as an advocacy tool. With him opening the DNC’s financial floodgates and GOP lawmakers retiring rather than face angry voters, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill is on the verge of becoming his party’s One Big Beautiful Blowout this year and next.
GOP leaders know they can’t hold the House of Representatives or the Senate in 2026 if their part of their base stays home or, God forbid, votes for a Democrat next year. But they can’t back down, either, for fear of enraging Trump. Republicans are stuck. And for once, Democrats are ready to pounce.