A number of developments this week indicate that a blue wave may swell in the 2026 midterms.
From Democrats landing top-tier recruits in critical races, to Republicans in competitive races retiring or forgoing bids, to the fact that President Donald Trump is desperately trying to rig House districts, sign after sign shows that the wind is at Democrats’ backs.
First, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina seems close to entering the Senate race following GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ abrupt and unexpected retirement.
Cooper, who left office after two terms with a positive approval rating, would perhaps be the best Democratic nominee in the race. His entrance into the contest would give Democrats an exceptional opportunity to pick up a critical Senate seat, bringing the party one step closer to taking control of the chamber.
That’s especially true if Republicans nominate a wackadoodle, which they could very likely do as Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump seems poised to run—something Tillis is warning Republicans not to do.
“This is going to be a tough race for someone. They need a good, solid, business, right-of-center conservative to match up against [Cooper],” Tillis told Washington Post reporter Patrick Svitek.
Meanwhile, in Texas, former Democratic Rep. Collin Allred announced that he is running for the seat of Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is struggling in a primary against scandal-torn Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. In fact, Paxton’s scandals grew this week, as his wife announced that she filed for divorce, citing “recent discoveries.”
If Allred is up against Paxton, Republicans fear that Democrats could pick up the seat—so much so that they’re now trying to meddle in the Democratic primary.
And Dan Osborn, an independent who surpassed expectations in a Nebraska Senate bid in 2024, announced that he is taking another swing at the race to possibly oust a GOP incumbent.
On the flip side, GOP officials are retiring and the party is struggling to land top recruits in other key races—a telling sign as candidates often forgo bids when they expect that the political environment would be bad for their party.
Aside from Tillis, GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska announced that he is retiring, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report predicts that the seat will be a Democratic pickup with Bacon out of the race—putting Democrats one seat closer to the three needed to win the speaker’s gavel.
In Pennsylvania, GOP Rep. Dan Meuser recently decided against challenging Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro in 2026, even though Trump offered to endorse Meuser. That’s not something a candidate does if they think they have a good shot at winning.
And earlier this year, GOP Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia said he would not try to oust Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026—leaving Republicans without a top-tier recruit in the swing state.
But perhaps the most obvious sign that Republicans don’t think 2026 will be great for their party is Trump himself forcing Texas to redraw its congressional maps to eke out more GOP seats—a desperate effort to offset losses in other parts of the country.
Trump reportedly said that he thinks Republicans will lose the House and that gerrymandering House districts in Texas and Ohio could help him rig a different outcome.
“It’s shameful that while Texans are still responding to the deadly and tragic floods, Governor Abbott, House Republicans, and Donald Trump are focusing their time and resources trying to push through new, rigged Congressional maps,” Democratic Rep. and DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement.
“Republicans are running scared because they know the American people will reject them next year for their broken promises and failed agenda. They also know they cannot win fair and square, so they are trying once again to rig the maps,” she added.
Ultimately, the 2026 midterms are a long way away. But pieces are falling into place showing that it could be a great year for Democrats.