Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
A bar graph can change minds
Americans widely back increasing the money spent on defense—unless they’re told how much money already goes to it.
This finding comes from YouGov, which conducted a survey experiment on federal funding. Of the 1,149 Americans it surveyed, half were shown a breakdown of the 2025 federal budget, while the other half weren’t. Then YouGov asked whether various departments should receive more, less, or the same amount of funding.
Among those who did not see the budget, 36% supported increased spending on defense. However, among those who did see the breakdown, only 18% felt the same way.
Clearly, seeing how much of the budget already goes to the Pentagon changed minds.
The second-largest difference came on education spending. Among those who saw that department’s sliver of the budget, support for increased spending was 57%, while among those who did not see the budget, it was just 47%.
Still, Defense stood out—and it’s easy to see why.
While most people want a strong national defense, many don’t realize it already dominates discretionary spending. The Pentagon’s annual budget exceeds $800 billion, while the Education Department’s budget is about a tenth of that. Meanwhile, the White House wants to slash nondefense spending by 23% going into the next fiscal year.
So when people say they want more for defense, it’s often because they don’t recognize how much we already allocate to it. But when they see the numbers, support is lower.
You see a similar pattern with foreign aid. Polls consistently show that Americans believe the U.S. spends roughly 30% of its budget on foreign aid. In reality, it’s about 1%. And polls show that seeing the true figure changes minds. For example, when KFF informed respondents of the real amount spent on foreign aid, the share who said the U.S. was spending “too much” on aid dropped by over 20 percentage points.
This is how public opinion gets shaped: not just by values, but also by assumptions. Most Americans don’t despise foreign aid or desire endless military spending. Instead, they’re reacting to a budget they imagine, not the one we have.
Turns out, seeing a bar graph can make a big difference.
Are Americans turning on the GOP?
The tide may be turning: Recent polling suggests Americans could now have a more favorable view of congressional Democrats than Republicans.
From the beginning of December through the end of March, the net favorability of each party’s Congress members was never more than 2 points apart, according to data from Morning Consult. In general, both party’s lawmakers were seen in a similarly negative light.
However, in early April, things began to open up. Shortly after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs” took effect, Democrats ran up their widest net-favorability lead (7 points) over Republicans since November and were viewed for the first time since last year’s election as net favorable, meaning a higher share of voters saw them positively than did negatively.
Additionally, from April to now, Democrats’ net favorability has been over 3 points higher on average, compared with it being less than 1 point higher on average between December and the end of March.
In other words, the deadlock may—emphasis on may—be breaking.
The latest survey, fielded between May 30 and June 2, shows that 46% of registered voters now have a favorable opinion of congressional Democrats, compared to 45% who view them unfavorably. Meanwhile, Republicans are facing challenges: 44% of voters see them positively, while 48% see them negatively.
These may seem like modest differences, but the gap has grown more consistent. Democrats also lead on the generic congressional ballot, which asks whether people would back the Democrat or the Republican for their local House district if the election were held today. Add these data points up and they seem to indicate that voters are turning on the GOP’s trifecta in Washington.
One reason for the shift might be Trump’s tariff agenda, which Americans hate and which Republican lawmakers generally refuse to criticize. Another could be that the Republican Party is embroiled in a public dispute over whether to support Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”—a massive, unpopular package that would cut food assistance, strip health insurance from millions, and risk wrecking the U.S. economy.
Instead of tackling voter concerns about the bill, Republicans are bullying former President Joe Biden for some reason, while they also rally around Trump, who remains unpopular in Morning Consult’s polling. Forty-six percent of voters view him favorably, while 51% view him unfavorably. Heck, even Elon Musk is openly criticizing the bill.
For now, Democrats seem to be benefiting from this contrast. So, yes, it’s a positive start, but now the question is whether Democrats can sustain this momentum and carry it into 2026.
Republicans have soured on green energy
While wind and solar power remain broadly popular, support for these energy sources has slipped since Trump’s first term, driven by a sharp decline among Republicans and GOP-leaning voters, according to new data from the Pew Research Center.
Since 2020, Republican support for expanding solar has dropped from 84% to 61%, and for wind power from 75% to just 48%.
Pew’s findings are especially striking on energy priorities. In 2020, 65% of Republicans said the U.S. should focus on expanding wind and solar power rather than oil, coal, and natural gas. Now, though, 67% say the country should prioritize fossil fuels over renewables.
The shift comes as Republicans in Congress consider speeding up approvals for oil and gas projects and slashing incentives for green energy. At the same time, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin has worked to weaken the agency and promote climate denialism from within.
Younger Republicans remain more supportive of wind and solar than their older counterparts—a trend seen across party lines—but even their support is slipping. Just 51% of Republicans ages 18 to 29 now say renewable energy should be the priority, down 16 points from last year.
Democrats, by contrast, still overwhelmingly back renewable energy. According to the poll, 91% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters favor more solar power, and 87% support more wind. These numbers have barely changed since Trump’s first term. And consistent with those views, 86% of Democrats say the U.S. should prioritize renewable development over fossil fuels.
Whether Republicans’ shifting attitudes reflect genuine policy preference, partisan signaling, or backlash to climate-focused regulations, the result is a party pivoting away from the broad, cross-partisan consensus that existed just a few years ago.
Any updates?
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Whom do Democrats want to lead their party? The answer isn’t clear, and that might be good news for a party in flux. A new YouGov/The Economist poll shows Democrats are split: Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied for first place, with each earning 21% support. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the only other figure to crack double digits, at 10%. Yes, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was on the list, but she pulled just 9%, a bit lower than in other polls.
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The Trump administration’s proposed budget would slash all funding for specialized services that support LGBTQ+ youth through the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline—but voters aren’t having it. A new Data for Progress poll finds that 69% of likely voters want to keep these services intact, compared with just 23% who support the cuts. The opposition is bipartisan—perhaps a reflection of shifting views within the GOP on issues like same-sex marriage—with 56% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats backing continued funding.
Vibe check
According to Civiqs, the percentage of registered voters who believe the economy is getting worse is largely the same as it was in the days after Trump’s announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs rollout (53% on April 2 and 52% on Friday)—but more people say the economy is improving: up from 31% on April 2 to 35% on Friday.
Of course, it’s Republicans who are driving that optimism—71% now say the economy is improving, compared with only 3% of Democrats who say the same. However, that could be more about perception than reality, especially since Trump’s tariffs are only just starting to shake up the job market.
Still, you can’t blame people for hoping. A Gallup poll conducted in early April found that 38% of Americans expected economic growth over the next six months, while 48% thought it would decline. Optimism may be slipping, but it hasn’t disappeared.
It might all be wishful thinking—especially if Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” becomes law—but for now, people are still holding on to hope.