Auburn and Baylor will kick off the college football season on a Friday night in Waco in what should be an exciting matchup. The Tigers and Bears both enter with coaches who have something to prove in Hugh Freeze and Dave Aranda.
Neither team had a particularly impressive season in 2024, with Auburn going 5-7 and Baylor finishing 8-5 only after six straight wins to end the regular season. That puts the pressure on both in this Week 1 matchup between two Power 4 programs.
College football analyst Josh Pate broke down the matchup in his latest episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He identified the matchup at the line of scrimmage, particularly between Auburn’s offensive line and Baylor’s defensive line, as being especially important.
“Should Auburn not control the line of scrimmage here?” Pate asked. “For all the talk about quarterbacks, all the talk about this and that, Auburn’s offensive line coach be the most underrated in the country. The quarterback will get questioned, Jackson Arnold will get questioned. …So much could go wrong here, here’s what could go right. Baylor’s defensive front’s a little undersized compared to what Auburn sees in conference play. What if they just lean on them and mash them?
“I’ve got as much respect for Dave Aranda as the defensive coach as almost anyone in the country. So I think to myself, if there’s a turnover-prone quarterback who’s starting his first game at a new school and his team has really good offensive line play and I know they want to run the ball on me, what’s the last thing personnel-wise I’m gonna let them do? So I think Dave Aranda sells out in every way imaginable to try and stop the run. If he’s still defenseless against it it’s a long night. It’s 30-10 final score, edge Auburn. But if you blow folks off the ball all night, the quarterback problem takes care of itself. Baylor was not great against the run last year, so that’s kind of a non-negotiable.”
Baylor ranked just 72nd in the country against the run last season. Jackson Arnold takes over at quarterback for Auburn this year after transferring in from Oklahoma.
Arnold had issues with turnovers a year ago, with six lost fumbles and three interceptions. That ultimately led to him losing the starting job midway through the year before taking it back. Needless to say, if he can be more efficient, it would open the door a lot for Auburn’s offense.
Pate also compared the quarterback play at Baylor, where Sawyer Robertson brings experience as a starter. He threw for 3,071 yards and 28 touchdowns to eight interceptions last year and could break the game open for the Baylor offense.
“We think Baylor has the edge at quarterback,” Pate said. “Sawyer Robertson, it’s pretty safe to say edge goes his way if it just comes down to a quarterback vs. quarterback matchup. The funny thing about this is, you kind of know the ceiling and the floor for Robertson. I’ve got no clue what the ceiling or the floor is for Jackson Arnold. I’m pretty sure last year was the floor. I hope it was. What’s the ceiling? Then the follow up is, if Hugh Freeze really has worked a miracle here, if the turnover issue just doesn’t rear its ugly head — what if the turnover problem isn’t there?
“Auburn’s wide receiver group can take over the game. This is yet another area of this game where I look at guys like Cam Coleman and, frankly, I don’t know that Baylor’s got an answer for him. Size-wise, I don’t think they’ve got a guy that can man up with him and then secondly, if Auburn’s running the ball effectively, Baylor’s gotta make a decision. I don’t think these DBs are gonna have a ton of help and that Auburn wide receiver group could take over the game if the quarterback play lets it.”
Ultimately, it’s a lot to consider when picking a winner for the game between Auburn and Baylor. However, Pate chose the Tigers to come out victorious, saying he believes they simply have the more talented team.
“Auburn’s gonna win this game,” he said. “Auburn’s gonna go into Waco, Texas on a Friday night. Most of these guys are visiting Waco for the last time in their lives and I think they’re gonna get a win. It may not be pretty, but it’s the kind of game where you go in there, you get your win and then you get to the airport as quick as you can. As you take off you say, ‘A ton of mistakes tonight. We’ll get ’em cleaned up. But we avoided disaster.’ I think Auburn’s going to avoid disaster and they’re gonna win in Week 1.”