Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
Republicans’ proposed Medicaid cuts hit home
This past week, House Republicans released their first major piece of legislation, “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL”—caps included—which would slash over $700 billion from Medicaid and kick millions of people off their health insurance.
In other words, Republicans are acting like they don’t represent anyone enrolled in Medicaid—which is far from the truth.
On average, 1 in 5 Americans living in a Republican-held House district is enrolled in Medicaid, according to a Daily Kos analysis of data compiled by KFF. In fact, 13 GOP-held districts have 1 in 3 enrolled in Medicaid, and two districts have more than half of citizens registered in the public health insurance program.
Sixty-four percent of California’s 22nd District is enrolled in Medicaid. The district is represented by David Valadao, a moderate-ish Republican who voted to impeach President Donald Trump in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. He won reelection last year, with 53.4% of the vote to his Democratic challenger’s 46.6%. Still, 495,200 of his constituents, including 176,600 children, are enrolled in Medicaid, so if he votes to slash the program, it will likely backfire.
However, Kentucky’s 5th District—where 54% are enrolled in Medicaid—is another story. It’s represented by far-right Republican Hal Rogers, and last year, Democrats didn’t contest the district, which Trump won with 79% of the vote. Margins like that will give Rogers, a man of little character, no reason not to vote to jeopardize health coverage for more than half of his constituents.
Still, Medicaid is a very popular program, with 88% of Democrats, 81% of independents, and even 64% of Republicans having a favorable view of it, according to a KFF poll conducted in January.
If Republicans go through with their Medicaid-wrecking budget bill, it’ll give Democrats an easy, resonant line of attack ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. It’s just an awful shame that it’ll come at the expense of low-income and disabled folks suffering.
Okay, doomer
War, what is it good for? Something to feel scared about, apparently.
A new YouGov poll for The Economist finds that 44% of U.S. adult citizens think a world war is more likely now than it was five years ago. Only 13% say a world war is less likely now, while 30% say it’s about the same.
Worse, 36% of Americans say a nuclear war is more likely today than five years ago, while a similar share (34%) say it’s about the same. Still, only 14% say it’s less likely now.
That sounds bad—very bad—but the truth is, fears of a nuclear war seem to be tapering off or at least plateauing.
Daily Kos tracked down 17 polls in which YouGov asked about the current likelihood of nuclear war compared with five years prior, with the first survey entering the field just two days after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. That poll found that 48% of Americans believed nuclear war was more likely at that time than five years prior.
In a poll fielded the following week, that number spiked to 59%, possibly due to increased media coverage of Russia’s invasion.
But so far, 59% has been the peak, with that figure steadily dropping to the mid-to-low 40s by September 2022. There was a brief spike back up to around 50% between October and November of that year, likely spurred by faltering talks of a new Iran nuclear deal as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine. But in January, it fell again to 42%.
And now it has fallen further, to 36%. But why?
It’s possible that many Americans who saw a greater threat in 2022-2023 have since settled into a sort of middle ground: 34% of Americans in the latest poll say the chances of nuclear war are “about the same” as five years ago. That’s the highest “about the same” figure across the 17 polls. This could mean that the increased threat Americans felt back then has since stabilized.
It’s also possible that Americans’ increased fear of a nuclear war was tied to media coverage around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After all, Russia is estimated to have the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, at 5,580 warheads, and only the U.S. comes close with 5,22 of its own. If a nuclear war were to start, it’d probably involve one or both of those nations at some capacity. But as the war in Ukraine has faded from front pages, Americans’ nuclear fears have stabilized or decreased.
Another reason for Americans’ changing attitudes could be partisanship. Across all polls conducted while Joe Biden was president, an average of 46% of Democrats said the current chance of nuclear war was greater than five years prior, virtually the same as the share in the latest poll (45%). However, across Biden’s presidency, the average share of Republicans who felt the same way was 57%—and it never dipped below 48%. But the latest poll, conducted more than 100 days into Trump’s second administration, finds that just 28% of Republicans say nuclear war is more likely than five years ago.
Hmm … wonder what changed.
Dissatisfied with freedoms
Newly released data from Gallup finds Americans are less satisfied with their freedoms than their global peers—but much of that has to do with how much less free American women feel.
Seventy-two of Americans were satisfied with their freedom to live their life as they see fit. However, that’s below the global median (81%) and well below those living in rich, market-based economies (86%). However, in 2021, 81% of Americans were satisfied with their freedoms.
So what happened? The Dobbs decision happened, mostly.
The share of American women who were satisfied with their freedoms dropped from 81% in 2021 to 71% in 2022—and has continued to fall, reaching 66% last year. That makes for a 15-point drop since 2021, and it’s three times the decline men saw between 2021 and 2024 (5 points).
Gallup’s data links this decline and this gender gap to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which eliminated the constitutional right to abortion. Why that link? Because Gallup’s 2022 survey was in the field as Politico reported on a leaked draft of that decision, on May 2, 2022.
In surveys completed in the days before Politico’s report, 80% of American women said they felt satisfied with their freedom in the U.S., but in the days immediately after the report, that number plummeted to 68%. Meanwhile, the share of American men who were satisfied with their freedoms remained essentially unchanged (75% before the leak, 77% after the leak).
Like any good data science firm, Gallup hedges its finding, writing, “While the poll doesn’t ask people why they do or don’t feel satisfied with their freedom, the timing of the 2022 decline relative to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs suggests that the loss of constitutional protection for abortion could be a strong factor” in Americans’ declining satisfaction with their personal freedom.
“That decision coincided with a decline in women’s satisfaction with their freedom, one that has only deepened since,” Gallup added.
Any updates?
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Trump has accepted a planned bribe from the Qatari government in the form of a $400 million luxury jet that his presidential library will own after he exits the White House—and shockingly, 52% of Americans say this gift will influence Trump’s actions as president, according to a new YouGov data. Additionally, 47% say his acceptance of the gift is “unacceptable.”
Vibe check
As of Friday, 60% of registered voters think abortion should be legal in most or all cases, while 37% think it should be illegal in most or all cases, according to Civiqs. However, among female voters, 66% support abortion being legal in most/all cases, and only 31% think it should be illegal in most/all cases.
Support for abortion rights is lower among men. The plurality (35%) say abortion should be illegal in most cases, with another 9% saying it should be illegal in all cases. Meanwhile, 29% say it should be legal in most cases, and 23% say it should be legal in all cases.