Despite being the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoff field, the Houston Rockets (52-30) are betting underdogs in their first-round series against the No. 7 Golden State Warriors (48-34).
One reason is the presence of Jimmy Butler, which could make the Warriors more dangerous than their record suggests. In 30 games with Butler, who Golden State acquired via a trade with Miami in early February, the Warriors went 23-7 (.767) and won at a far superior clip to their overall mark (.585). (Then again, one of those seven losses did come at home versus Houston in early April.)
In addition, Golden State still has familiar faces in leadership roles between Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Steve Kerr. Those are mainstays from the dynasty-era Warriors that won four NBA championships and six West titles in an eight-season span from 2014-15 through 2021-22. The Rockets, on the other hand, have a relatively young roster with numerous players (including Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson) who have yet to play in a postseason game in their NBA careers.
So, between the experience gap and the midseason trade for Butler, it’s a more nuanced matchup than the No. 2 versus No. 7 framing would suggest. Yet, on TNT’s flagship Inside the NBA postgame show after Golden State’s play-in tournament win on Tuesday secured its playoff spot, two of the three legendary analysts still picked the Rockets to ultimately win the series (schedule).
The exchange went as follows:
Charles Barkley: I still like the Rockets in that series.
ShaquilleO’Neal: I like Golden State over Houston. Experience.
KennySmith: It’s hard for me to go against the Rockets.
O’Neal: Oh, I love the Rockets, too.
Smith: However, if you really look at the second half of the season, since All-Star break, the Golden State Warriors are 21-7. They are not a seventh seed. They are not. With Jimmy Butler they are not playing like a seventh seed. They are playing like a three seed.
ErnieJohnson, host: They had the second-best record in the Western Conference after the All-Star Game.
Smith: This will be the series that Ime Udoka changes Jalen Green into what he did with Jaylen Brown (in Boston).
Barkley: Oh, God.
Smith: Getting him to that next level, being more consistent. Jalen Green is a guy who would get 30 points one night and get nine the next.
Barkley: Don’t compare him to Jaylen Brown.
Smith: I think this is the series that he (Green) will be consistent. And that will take the Rockets.
The complete segment can be viewed below. It should be noted, of course, that Smith and Barkley each played for the Rockets during their NBA careers, while O’Neal did not.
Green was Houston’s leading scorer (21.0 points per game) for the 2024-25 season as a whole, but he struggled against Golden State. In five games against the Warriors, Green averaged 12.6 points on 31.5% shooting and 25.0% on 3-pointers.
However, Green came on strong during the fourth quarter of that April 6 win at San Francisco, and he’ll look to carry that over when Game 1 tips off on Sunday night in Houston. It will be televised on TNT, which will have Johnson, Smith, Barkley, and O’Neal in featured roles during pregame, halftime, and postgame coverage.
As a franchise, the 2024-25 Rockets are making their first appearance in the NBA playoffs since the 2019-20 season. They lost four playoff matchups to Golden State during the 2010s, though Houston’s roster and coaching staff has been entirely turned over since that last series loss in 2019.
This article originally appeared on Rockets Wire: Majority of ‘Inside the NBA’ panel picks Rockets to upset Warriors