Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa might be headed for the exit. Multiple sources told CBS News and other outlets she’s preparing to announce next Thursday that she won’t seek reelection in 2026, ending her two-term run in the Senate after a disastrous town hall meeting in May that generated national headlines.
Ernst, 55, has been evasive for months about her plans, even as she boasted that Iowa would remain a GOP stronghold and mocked the growing list of Democrats eager to challenge her.
“Every day we get a new Democratic member of the House or Senate that decides to run for this Senate seat—bring it on,” she told the Westside Conservative Club earlier this month. “At the end of the day, Iowa is going to be red.”
But behind the scenes, Ernst has been telling allies she never planned to serve more than two terms and wants to head to the private sector. She joins a string of Senate Republicans bailing out before 2026, including North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, and Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell. For a party facing a likely blue wave, her departure leaves a vulnerable open seat and a lot of hand-wringing.
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The Iowa Senate race is already crowded. Four Democrats have announced they are running: state Sen. Zach Wahls; state Rep. Josh Turek; Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris; and former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce Director Nathan Sage. Two Republicans—former state lawmaker Jim Carlin and perennial candidate Joshua Smith—have also declared campaigns.
The Cook Political Report still rates the seat “likely Republican,” but Democrats now have a better shot. Recent special election wins have shaken the GOP in Iowa. On Tuesday, Democrat Catelin Drey won a deep-red state Senate seat by 10 points, breaking the GOP supermajority. In January, Mike Zimmer flipped a state Senate seat in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 21 percentage points, and Democrat Angelina Ramirez won a Cedar Rapids-based House seat in April. Republicans are feeling the pressure, and Ernst’s exit only adds to the uncertainty.
Uncertainties around Ernst’s political future aren’t new. She drew national scorn in May for her appearance at a town hall, where she dismissed constituent concerns over Medicaid cuts leading to deaths by responding, “Well, we all are going to die.”
After fierce blowback, she doubled down, mocking those who condemned her remark.
“I apologize,” she said sarcastically. “And I’m really, really glad that I did not have to bring up the subject of the tooth fairy as well.” Her callousness underscored growing tensions between hard-right priorities and the everyday concerns of voters, especially in a state where Medicaid and food assistance cuts will hit tens of thousands.
Even within her party, Ernst has faced scrutiny. Fundraising reports show she raised less in the second quarter of 2025 than she did at the same point in her 2020 campaign. Senate Republicans reportedly pressed her to run again, with Majority Leader John Thune telling a reporter he was “doing everything I can to encourage her to run for reelection.”
Ernst’s career saw a rapid climb: small-town Iowa roots, Army National Guard tours in Kuwait and Iraq, election to the Senate in 2014, and a rise to the No. 3 leadership slot in the Republican conference. She even interviewed as a potential running mate for Donald Trump in 2016. But her recent years have been defined by gaffes and loyalty tests rather than accomplishments.
Just weeks ago, she told conservatives, “Republicans are going to rule the day” in 2026. Too bad she may not be around to see it. If Ernst bows out, that leaves Iowa Republicans to pick up the pieces and confront a Democratic Party that’s energized by recent wins.
Indeed, for Iowa Democrats, Ernst’s potential departure is a gift, potentially turning a once-safe red seat into a real battleground.
For Republicans, it’s another warning that high-profile retirements and voter backlash could make the midterms far more challenging than they expected. Ernst may have built her career on loyalty to Trump and Iowa’s conservative base, but now she’s choosing the private sector over a grueling campaign—and leaving her party to scramble.
So long and good riddance.