Key GOP retirement boosts Democrats’ chance of taking back the House

Rep. Don Bacon, one of just a few moderate Republicans in the House, announced on Monday that he will not run for reelection. That decision cracks open one of the party’s most vulnerable battleground seats just ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

For five terms, the 61-year-old Bacon has represented Nebraska’s 2nd District, which is often referred to as a “blue dot” in reliably Republican Nebraska since it centers on Omaha and its increasingly liberal voters.

“I think it’s time for a new Republican to be your nominee that can do 12, 14 hour a day and hold this seat,” Bacon said at a press conference at Omaha’s airport. “It is disconcerting to get attacked from the right.”

Though Bacon believes he could win another race, he cited family reasons as his main motivation. He wants more time at home with his eight grandchildren, he said.

The stakes are high. Democrats need only a handful of pickups to retake the House, and this one was already on their list. The Cook Political Report calls it a “Republican Toss-Up.”

Bacon’s district has been a swing seat for many years. And a Democrat has won it in three recent presidential races: Barack Obama in 2008, Joe Biden in 2020, and Kamala Harris in 2024.

Voters register to vote at St. Leo the Great Catholic Church, Tuesday, May 13, 2025, Omaha, Neb. (Nikos Frazier/Omaha World-Herald via AP)
People register to vote at St. Leo the Great Catholic Church on May 13 in Omaha, Nebraska.

The city’s mood is also changing. This year, voters ousted longtime Republican Mayor Jean Stothert and elected Democrat John Ewing. Democrats have already entered the congressional race, including state Sen. John Cavanaugh, son of former Rep. John J. Cavanaugh III, who held the seat in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Bacon’s announcement comes after another major GOP retirement: Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Tillis said this past weekend he won’t seek reelection, citing President Donald Trump’s proposed tax and health care cuts. Both Bacon and Tillis plan to serve out their terms.

While Tillis’ seat might be a slightly longer shot, Democrats are very optimistic about flipping Bacon’s seat. After all, the president’s party usually loses ground in the midterms. Trump did in 2018, and Democrats hope to repeat that in 2026.

Bacon’s decision was not a surprise. A retired Air Force officer, he’s long expressed frustration with Washington gridlock—and with his party’s hard-right shift. In recent campaigns, he’s emphasized his bipartisan record, including voting for Biden’s 2021 infrastructure package. In 2024, he narrowly secured reelection, with just over 50% of the vote. 

However, not being a Trump loyalist has consequences in Republican circles. Bacon criticized the former president’s Ukraine policy, pushed to return tariff powers to Congress, and voiced skepticism about Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The Nebraska Republican Party endorsed a primary challenger against him in the 2024 cycle.

Now House GOP leaders are scrambling to defend a key battleground, with no incumbent and a weak majority in the chamber.

The 2026 map just got more complicated.

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