Gators Online staff predicts the W-L record for Florida in 2025

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Game week is here! The Florida Gators football team opens the 2025 season against Long Island University on Saturday at 7 p.m. on SEC Network+.

Gators Online‘s Zach Abolverdi, Keith Niebuhr and Corey Bender predicted each game last season (see results below), and new staff writer Blake Alderman join us this year!

Here are our predictions for Florida’s W-L record this season, along with the percentage chances for a UF win — according to ESPN Analytics matchup predictor — in parentheses.

Aug. 30, Long Island (99.0% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: If there was ever a year where the Gators need a cupcake to open the season with, it’s 2025. With DJ Lagway missing practices in spring and fall camp and some other key players working their way back from injuries, this is the perfect matchup for Lagway to make up for lost time and Florida to potentially rest some starters or get them out of the game early. This one won’t be close. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: The good news: UF will roll. The bad news: The Gators won’t learn much about themselves. Hopefully Lagway gets some reps in before the real season begins. (Florida)

Corey Bender: Florida opens the season with an easy win at home. The offense will look sharp early and take control by halftime. Expect the backups to get plenty of snaps in the second half. This game will be a confidence builder. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: Florida opened the season every other year under Billy Napier against strong opponents. While it’s a good early test for your team, a loss can start your season off on the wrong foot. The Gators have another tough schedule this season, but this game should be the least difficult of them all. This should be a good opportunity to get back into the swing of the season and get some young players snaps. (Florida)

Sept. 6, South Florida (90.4% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: Florida’s Week 2 opponent is more formidable than the Sharks, but USF will still be outmanned and overwhelmed. While the objective of the opener will be getting Lagway some work, evaluating the roster and winning a stress-free game, the Gators need to fine-tune both sides of the ball against tougher competition before they get into conference play. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: Third-year Bulls coach Alex Golesh has a dozen starters back, including quarterback Byrum Brown. For UF, this is sandwiched between LIU and LSU, so in that regarded you have to view it as a potential trap game. But if Lagway is 100%, this probably shouldn’t be that close. (Florida)

Corey Bender: The Gators will keep things rolling against South Florida. The defense should force multiple turnovers and make things tough for USF’s offense. Florida’s run game will dominate the line of scrimmage. This one shouldn’t be close. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: This team has some talent on it, and it should be a game that is more competitive than Florida’s opener. While I see USF making some plays, and possibly keeping this one close early, I think the Gators pull away as the game goes on. Quarterback Byrum Brown has some experience on the offensive line, and some receivers who can make plays. The Bulls have enough to make a run in conference play, but I don’t see them getting the win in this game. (Florida)

Sept. 13, at LSU (42.5% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: While Florida faces the first real test of the season with its SEC opener, the Tigers will enter this game having already been battle tested. They play at No. 4 Clemson in Week 1. LSU is expected to be elite on offense again with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier back (4,052 yards, 29 TDs), while its defense should be improved after adding several transfers. Playing in Death Valley at night is always tough. (LSU)

Keith Niebuhr: LSU to replace four starters on the offensive line so UF must take advantage of that and make life difficult for Nussmeier. What I don’t like for UF is that the Tigers will be the more battle-tested of the two; they play at Clemson in their opener, while the Gators start with LIU and USF. (LSU)

Corey Bender: Florida will face its first big test of the season in Death Valley. LSU’s defense will pressure the quarterback and force mistakes. The crowd and environment will be tough to overcome. The Gators keep it close but fall late. (LSU)

Blake Alderman: Florida’s first road game of the year may be the rowdiest environment the team will see away from The Swamp. LSU starts the season off with Clemson, so that should give us a better idea of how the Tigers will look this year. LSU added a ton of pieces through the transfer portal. I’m a believer that when a team has a lot of new pieces, it takes time for everything to gel. LSU had one of the best offensive lines on paper last season, but the Gators had their way with them. I don’t know that their line is any better this year, and the Gators have a ton of returners. I think it will be close, but DJ Lagway’s ability to stretch the field is what I think will be the X-Factor. (Florida)

Sept. 20, at Miami (47.0% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: This is a must-win game for the Gators. They need payback for their embarrassing season-opening loss in 2024. Florida also gets another crack at Carson Beck, who transferred from Georgia to take over for Cam Ward.The UF players are going to be amped for the rematch, the team should be better prepared and this contest will be much more competitive than it was a year ago. I like the Gators to bounce back with a win. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: Complete tossup, but I’ll roll the dice and go with UF here. Florida fans seem to be downplaying the talent of Beck, formerly of Georgia. But he’s going to be throwing behind an offensive line that has key pieces returning from the one that handled Florida last year. But being early in the season, the Gators might have the edge in terms of chemistry since the ‘Canes have so many first-year transfers. (Florida)

Corey Bender: This rivalry game will bring a lot of energy, but Florida will stay focused. The defense will step up with a few key stops, especially late. Expect a strong rushing performance to help close it out. Florida wins a tight one on the road. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: Another road test, but the Florida Gators won’t have to travel as far for this one. The level of success that Miami’s front seven has in this game is what I think will be the most important matchup. Carson Beck is the new signal caller in Coral Gables, and I don’t think he has the weapons that Cam Ward had last season. I see another close game, but I think UF has more playmakers. (Florida)

Oct. 4, Texas (29.7% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: Like LSU, the Longhorns will be battle tested before Florida. Texas opens the season on Saturday at No. 3 Ohio State but then plays three inferior opponents at home (San Jose St., Utep, Sam Houston St.) before the Gators, while they get a bye before hosting Arch Manning. He will compete in The Shoe at noon, but playing in The Swamp at night is a different beast. I think that atmosphere — and Florida’s defense — is going to get the best of him. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: Playing at home should help UF make this a four-quarter game but the Longhorns simply have more overall talent. I’m not saying the Gators can’t win; I think they can. But time will tell if they have the makeup to make the big plays in a meaningful game when it counts. Either way, this will be a good learning experience for a program trying to get back to the top. (Texas)

Corey Bender: Texas comes into Gainesville looking like a playoff contender. Florida plays hard and keeps it close for most of the game. But the Longhorns make more plays in the fourth quarter. The Gators lose a physical battle at home. (Texas)

Blake Alderman: The No. 1 team in the country to open the season in the AP Top 25 Poll. DJ Lagway was unable to play in this game last year despite his attempts to come back from injury. I expect him to be fired up for this game, but Texas seems like a team built to make a CFP run. The game being in The Swamp should help, but the Longhorns look like the better team to me. (Texas)

Oct. 11, at Texas A&M (39.3% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: In my opinion, Florida’s matchup in College Station will be harder than hosting Texas. The Longhorns may have the better team, but I really like the Aggies and think they’re going to make some noise in the SEC this year. Texas A&M has a loaded roster, returns a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Marcel Reed, who carved up the Gators last season, and should be stout on defense under Mike Elko. (Texas A&M)

Keith Niebuhr: Another coin flip. I don’t love where this sits on the schedule for Florida. And the Aggies have a solid roster, especially on offense. But Florida should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. In a shootout, I think Lagway returns home to the Lone Star State and gets the win. (Florida)

Corey Bender: Florida bounces back with a solid road win in College Station. The defense will be the difference, forcing A&M into mistakes. A big play on special teams could swing the game. Gators take control in the second half and pull away. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed had a coming-out party in the game against Florida last season. He started to turn the ball over more as the season went on last year, but he’s a capable passer. He’s a talented runner and gave Florida’s defense fits on the ground in their last meeting. This should be another game that Lagway is geared up for, but I don’t think it will be enough. Elko is a strong defensive mind, and Kyle Field should be rocking. (Texas A&M)

Oct. 18, Mississippi State (83.0% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: UF is wearing throwback uniforms for this game, which should be a happy homecoming for the Florida faithful. The Gators started to find their groove last season against Mississippi State in the 45-28 win, which was the first time defensive coordinator Ron Roberts called plays from upstairs. His unit will give up fewer points this year. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: The Gators have eight preseason All-SEC players while the Bulldogs have only one. The rosters don’t look comparable, but Florida may have to guide against complacency. Still, it should win comfortably at home. (Florida)

Corey Bender: Florida returns home and handles business. The offense will spread the ball around and wear down the Bulldogs’ defense. Mississippi State may hang around early, but the Gators will separate after halftime. It’s a comfortable win. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: The Bulldogs and head coach Jeff Lebby have essentially been dealt with building this team from the ground up. This was a bounce-back game for the Florida Gators in the 2024 season, and I see that being the case again this year. Homecoming, and the team rocking the throwback uniforms in The Swamp? Yeah, give me the Gators. (Florida)

Nov. 1, Georgia (30.8% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: The Bulldogs have won four straight games in this rivalry, but they were on their heels last year before Lagway left with a hamstring injury. He’s going to finish what he started this season and Florida’s losing streak to UGA will come to an end. With 15 returning starters, the Gators have a team that can beat Georgia — they also did in 2024 — and the Bulldogs have to replace half of their starting 22. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: This will be the best defense the Gators face all season. And although the Dawgs don’t have many big names back on offense, I doubt they stink based on the way they’re recruited. Meanwhile, the offseason chatter suggests Gunner Stockton, Georgia’s new starting QB, has some ability. UF is getting closer to matching Georgia in talent, but might not quite be there just yet. (Georgia)

Corey Bender: This neutral-site rivalry will be one of the most anticipated games of the season. Florida’s defense will rise to the occasion and get pressure on Georgia’s quarterback. A late turnover could shift momentum toward the Gators. In the end, Florida makes just enough plays to pull off a huge win. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: I don’t consider myself to be the brightest crayon in the box. However, I am a firm believer that the Gators would have won last season had Lagway not left the game with an injury. He’s dealt with bumps and bruises this offseason, so his availability for this game is the most important thing, considering this is past the midway point of the season. I’m not sold on the Bulldogs offense, but their defense is strong every year. This would give Napier his first win in Jacksonville as UF’s head coach. (Florida)

Nov. 8, at Kentucky (69.1% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: Napier got his first win over Kentucky in 2024 when Lagway and Jadan Baugh became the first true freshmen in school history to start at quarterback and running back. I doubt Baugh will replicate his record-setting five-touchdown performance, but the Gators should have another dominant win over the Wildcats like last year’s 48-20 victory. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: Many strong UF teams have struggled on cold days in Lexington and with this game in November this year, I’ll be watching the weather. But entering the season, Napier just seems to have a far better roster. Kentucky is searching for answers after laying an egg in 2024. (Florida)

Corey Bender: Florida won’t overlook Kentucky on the road. It’ll be a tough, physical game, but the Gators are more talented across the board. The run game will help seal the win in the fourth quarter. Florida escapes Lexington with a gritty victory. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: We’ve seen Billy Napier try to out-physical the Wildcats in some of their past matchups. With Baugh on the roster, I think the Gators can do that. Baugh had a breakout game in The Swamp last year against Kentucky, and I think he can do it again this year. (Florida)

Nov. 18, at Ole Miss (41.2% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: The Gators are capable are running the table during the back half of their schedule, especially if they beat UGA. That said, winning six straight games (or more) to close out the season will be hard, and I think Florida gets tripped up at Ole Miss. The Rebels are out for revenge and their new starting quarterback, former UF commit Austin Simmons, will be settled in by Week 12. (Ole Miss)

Keith Niebuhr: On the one hand, I think UF’s difficult schedule will toughen the Gators up. On the other, the physicality of those games plus what it can do to a team emotionally makes it a two-way street. This is another one of those games I could see going either way. Whichever team is healthier at this point in the season might be the one that wins it. On paper, I like UF’s roster more. (Florida)

Corey Bender: This will be a dangerous matchup for Florida. Ole Miss plays fast and scores early, putting pressure on the Gators to respond. Florida’s defense struggles to slow down the Rebels’ tempo. They rally late but come up short. (Ole Miss)

Blake Alderman: Even though it was at home last season, the Gators took down a better Ole Miss team. The Rebels went heavy in the transfer portal again this offseason, and I am bullish on the ability of Simmons. I picked UF over LSU because of the many new pieces on the roster in an early game. The Rebels have many new faces but will get more time to gel by this point in the season. This could be a high-scoring affair, but being on the road, I don’t know that I see Florida stringing together enough consistent drives. (Ole Miss)

Nov. 22, Tennessee (51.5% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: The Gators get an opportunity to avenge every loss from last season, and Tennessee is one they really want. Like the Georgia game last year, Florida had a lead before its starting quarterback was injured. Lagway will be much better this time around than he was coming off the bench at Rocky Top, while the QB situation for the Volunteers is worse. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: This seems like it’ll be a tough matchup for the Vols, who have to replace a lot on offense. Can they score enough points in The Swamp to keep pace with Lagway and UF’s balanced offense? Seems unlikely, at least going into the season. (Florida)

Corey Bender: The Swamp will be rocking for this rivalry game. Florida’s defense will frustrate Tennessee’s passing attack all night. A few big plays on offense help the Gators take control in the second half. Florida gets a statement win at home. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: Florida had a chance to win this game last season on the road against what was eventually a CFP team. The Volunteers lost some key pieces and will feature a brand new quarterback this season. Tennessee hasn’t won in The Swamp since 2003. This rivalry game should be a hostile environment for the away team. I think the Volunteers should have a better defense this season, but I’m not as sold on their offense. (Florida)

Nov. 29, Florida State (88.1% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: It feels like 2001 again with Tennessee and FSU as the last games (only reversed). Last time, a 34-32 loss in the regular season finale vs. the Vols knocked Florida out of national championship contention. This year, the Gators will win their last game of the regular season against FSU and — if they finish 9-3 as I predict — could punch their ticket to the CFB Playoff. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: I truly believe this will be a game where both teams will have similar records entering Nov. 29. And if things don’t fall UF’s way, FSU might even have more wins before they meet. But given who they will have played, it won’t matter. Unless the ‘Noles catch the proverbial lightning in the bottle, Florida should win, and probably by a couple touchdowns or more. Not only does UF have Lagway, but the Gators look far better entering the season on the line of scrimmage (Florida)

Corey Bender: The Gators close the regular season with a big rivalry win. The defense will come up with key stops and dominate the line of scrimmage. Florida’s offense finds rhythm and controls the tempo throughout. It’s a strong finish to a great season. (Florida)

Blake Alderman: Florida State has to take a step forward this season after going 2-10 last season, right? Even if the new pieces added to the roster and coaching staff help the Seminoles take a step forward, I just don’t think this roster is going to be good enough to make a splash. With 3 losses on the season, the Gators could still make their way into the playoffs, given the strength of their schedule. I think the team remains focused and handles their in-state rival at home to keep in the conversation of the CFP committee. (Florida)

W-L records from Gators Online staff

Zach Abolverdi: 9-3

Keith Niebuhr: 9-3

Corey Bender: 9-3

Blake Alderman: 9-3

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