The upcoming college football season could be among the best in recent history for the University of Florida, but several things must go right for that to happen.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly broke down the major title contenders with his “ifs” system — as in Florida wins the national championship if such-and-such happens. There are teams with two ifs, three ifs and four ifs. Florida is a four-if team, and a lot of the pressure falls on the shoulders of sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway.
Connelly relies on data and numbers in his writing, so it’s not surprising to see him question Lagway, who is still fairly green. Still, Connelly writes that Florida wins the College Football Playoffs “if Lagway is what we think he is.”
The team played differently with Lagway on the field last year, but he only started and completed a handful of games as a true freshman. Beginning the year behind Graham Mertz and minor injuries have him a bit less prepared than some would like for a supposed Heisman contender.
“Like Arch Manning, we’re projecting success onto DJ Lagway,” Connelly wrote. “The No. 8 prospect in the 2024 class went 6-1 as a starter and averaged an explosive 16.7 yards per completion. But he also threw nine interceptions with subpar efficiency, and he ranked 69th in Total QBR. That he’s currently No. 6 in the Heisman odds, then, feels aggressive. Lagway has great size, a huge arm and solid mobility, but that’s a lot of hype.”
Lagway needs some help
The second stipulation for Florida to win it all is “if (Lagway) has receivers.” There’s a lot of unproven talent in Florida’s wide receivers room ready to take the place of Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike. UCLA transfer J. Michael Sturdivant figures to be in the mix alongside Eugene Wilson III, who is returning from injury, and speedster Aidan Mizell.
“Wilson caught 61 passes as a freshman and had receptions of 85 and 40 yards early in 2024 before a season-ending injury. He’s a likely star, but Lagway will also need help from others,” wrote Connelly.
Five-star freshmen Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson are also likely to see some action. Kahleil Jackson is a veteran presence who showed plenty of flashes before his 2024 ended early due to surgery. Sophomore Tank Hawkins, redshirt freshman TJ Abrams and true freshman Naeshaun Montgomery are all talented players who will compete for a spot in the rotation, too.
Some defensive development is needed
Florida dealt with a litany of injuries last season, and the underclassmen got plenty of playing time as a result. Connelly says that “last season’s sophomore defenders become steely-eyed veterans” if Florida is going to win the national championship.
“Of the 12 returning defenders who had 200-plus snaps, eight are now sophomores or juniors. That the Gators still jumped from 60th to 23rd in defensive SP+ was exciting, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Gators enjoyed another leap in 2025. That will require juniors such as nickel Sharif Denson and linebacker Grayson Howard to raise their games even more.”
Cormani McClain and Dijon Johnson are two other defensive backs who could stand to take a step forward if they’re going to be regulars in the Florida secondary. In the front seven, LJ McCray and Myles Graham are two names expected to take on a bigger role this year.
Depth, depth, depth
Every good football team has depth at a position or two. The great ones have depth at several spots on the field. Florida plays what might be the toughest regular season schedule for the second year in a row, and it took two late-season upsets to finish 8-5 last year.
Florida wins the national championship if “the Gators have the depth to survive this ridiculous schedule,” according to Connelly. “Upsets of LSU and Ole Miss were exciting, but with seven more projected top-15 opponents on the schedule, a genuine title run will require even more huge wins and exceptional depth.”
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida Gators football ESPN Bill Connelly ifs list