ESPN analyst says 5 Texans players are worth at least 1 first-round pick

It’s almost impossible to determine the true value of a player outside of their respective worth to an individual team. Contract value helps, but even that is situational. On-field play can sometimes tell the story, but it’s not direct science.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell was posed the question and chose to look at player value in one of the most unique but honest ways: What would a team fetch for them in a hypothetical trade? Most of the players Barnwell looked at won’t be traded by their current teams since they add too much value to the roster, but it paints a picture on how hard it would be to pry the best names away from teams, especially when multiple first-round picks are dangled in front of them.

Barnwell split the values into three sections: Players worth at least three first-round picks, players worth more than one first-round pick and players worth just one Day 1 selection. Pro Bowl quarterback C.J. Stroud, by no surprise, was listed as the only player worth three Day 1 selections after two promising years as a top 10 passers.

As for the other categories, Pro Bowl defensive end Will Anderson Jr. was worth two first-rounds, but also more. That could be a Day 2 selection or proven play, but it differs from Pro Bowl wideout Nico Collins and All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who fell into the two first-round pick category.

Second-year defensive back Kamari Lassiter, who arguably was the best cornerback among rookies in 2024, netted one first-round pick while All-Pro defensive end Danielle Hunter was named an honorable mention.

For Stroud, even with what some would consider a regressive sophomore season, having a quarterback with his potential and the value of the position raises the asking price for Houston to move off of him.

“Of the 31 quarterbacks who dropped back 600 times between 2023 and 2024, he ranked 21st in Total QBR and 27th in off-target rate,” Barnwell wrote. “He’s still right alongside Jayden Daniels in the conversation about the league’s best quarterbacks on a rookie deal, but 2025 might recalibrate whether we should count on him to take the leap into MVP consideration or settle in as a merely good signal-caller.”

As for Anderson, his value is higher than Collins’ and Stingley’s value, not because of his position, but rather his potential. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, only two pass-rushers have a better pass-rush win rate than the 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year.

The names? All-Pro and Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and do-it-all man Micah Parsons.

“Anderson still has two years left on his rookie deal and a potential fifth-year option to come makes him a huge bargain. Even with prorating his signing bonus, he’s making only about $10 million a year over the next two seasons, which is roughly Garrett’s monthly rate.

Considering how well the Texans have drafted lately, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see five of the six players still on their rookie deals. Hunter’s age is the only reason why teams could be wary of making a trade with a lucrative contract that feels immovable. Meanwhile, don’t be surprised if after this season that Calen Bullock joins the crew as the next name since he’s been a nightmare for the offense in training camp.

Most teams only have one or two players worth one or two first-round picks. So, while the Texans have some quality talent, they’re also one of the few teams with multiple players worth at least two first-round picks.

Talk about a promising scouting department, right?

This article originally appeared on Texans Wire: How many Texans players are worth a 1st round pick? Analyst weighs in

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *