ESPN Analyst Doubts Clemson’s National Title Hopes Despite ACC Favoritism originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
CLEMSON, SC – As the countdown to the 2025 college football season intensifies, ESPN’s Bill Connelly is delivering a dose of cold reality to Clemson faithful: while the Tigers are a lock for the ACC crown and a College Football Playoff berth, their national championship aspirations face an uphill battle. Connelly, known for his analytical prowess, admits he “struggle[s] when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games,” even as his own numbers suggest they have a path back to elite status.
In his latest ACC preview, Connelly, a voice that has often drawn the ire of the Clemson fanbase, didn’t mince words about the Tigers’ 2024 performance, pointing to underlying statistics that raise red flags:
- DEFENSIVE STRUGGLES: “The run defense was mediocre even with (Peter) Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great,” Connelly noted. He highlighted that Clemson’s defense ranked a concerning 51st in success rate allowed and a dismal 103rd in yards allowed per successful play, hitting its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012.
- OFFENSIVE LACK OF ‘POP’: While acknowledging “lovely big runs” from Phil Mafah and Jay Haynes, Connelly criticized the passing game’s explosiveness, stating the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and quarterback Cade Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion.
- TURNOVER LUCK: Connelly also suggested that “a bit of good fortune” played a role in their 2024 success, remarking, “Without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.”
Despite these statistical reservations, Connelly acknowledges the immense potential within Dabo Swinney’s squad. “If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team,” he wrote. He’s eager to see if “the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again” with Klubnik distributing to a loaded receiving corps. Similarly, he believes the defense, with its blend of experience and a new, proven defensive coordinator, is primed for a rebound.
Connelly’s advanced SP+ model actually places Clemson eighth nationally preseason, projecting a league-best 36.8% chance of winning at least 11 games and a commanding 26.8% shot at the ACC championship. Furthermore, the Tigers boast an NCAA-leading 85% returning production on offense and 76% on defense—numbers far surpassing the national average of 53%.
The stage is now set for a season of immense intrigue. Can this “wonderfully experienced” Clemson team defy the statistical doubts and prove Bill Connelly — and any other “hater” — wrong by making a deep, championship run in the College Football Playoff? All eyes will be on Death Valley.
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 10, 2025, where it first appeared.