Creative accounting? Heat have innovative alternatives when it comes to contracts, draft, free agency

MIAMI – With the NBA Finals drawing to a close on Sunday night and therefore teams able to begin contract discussions with their own impending free agents on Monday, a certain orderliness is in place for the start of the league’s personnel season.

But there also is the chance for chaos, the expected and anticipated to turn into something far different, and potentially far more creative, the type of thinking that could impact the Miami Heat.

Take, for example, the dual-layered decisions due with Duncan Robinson.

On the surface, it appears to be a black-and-white situation.

Robinson has a June 29 deadline to terminate his contract and bypass his $19.9 million salary for next season, of which $9.9 is guaranteed. Based on his uneven season, the expectation is bypassing his termination option, effectively opting in.

The thought is Robinson then becomes a prime trade option, able to be dealt out for his full $19.9 million salary, with an acquiring team then releasing him by his July 8 deadline for a $10 million savings against the tax and cap,  liable for only a $9.9 million payment.

However, if the Heat do not deal Robinson, a Plan B could be Robinson choosing to move into free agency, returning on what would have been his $9.9 million guarantee, and building, say, a three-year, $32 million contract off that $9.9 million 2025-26 salary.

That would leave Robinson with what he otherwise is guaranteed for next season, plus two additional seasons, while also locking in a shooter for the Heat at a price below the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

All of that would be moot if the Heat find a path to Kevin Durant on the trade market that includes sending out Robinson’s contract. Robinson only can be included in a deal if he bypasses his opt out.

Another potential twist for the Heat, which also is not expected, would be the Heat bypassing the $2 million due next season to Keshad Johnson at that June 29 guarantee deadline.

While that salary would actually be below what it would cost the Heat to add a player at the veteran minimum, an alternative would be to release Johnson and then bring him back on a two-way contract, to open an additional spot on the 15-player standard roster.

For such a waive-and-conversion move to work, Johnson would have to clear waivers and then be amenable to a two-way deal that would halve his salary.

The question with such a gambit would be whether there would be a market for Johnson, based on his limited 2024-25 sample, for a standard contract elsewhere.

Beyond those two alternatives with Robinson and Johnson, there also could be a waiting game with Dru Smith beyond the wait already in place from his December Achilles injury.

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While Smith is eligible for another two-way contract, he was on the verge of being moved to a standard deal before his injury.

Should Davion Mitchell not return in free agency, it could increase potential urgency to lock in Smith, who was doing many of the things before he was sidelined that Mitchell eventually did, from a defensive and 3-point standpoint.

The Heat also have the option of keeping Smith on a two-way deal and then converting him to a standard deal down the road.

For now, all moves, from the subtle to the substantial, will likely remain on hold until there is resolution with Durant and the trade machinations of the Phoenix Suns.

If Durant is added by the Heat, then the payroll and tax, as well as the roster construct, will require a decidedly different approach, particularly if more players are sent out than brought back.

Another twist could be a Durant deal taking the Heat completely out of the draft, including no need to consider the salary-cap slot of a No. 20 draft choice in Wednesday night’s first round (the Heat do not have a second-round pick).

If the Heat draft and retain a player at No. 20, such a selection would be slotted into an expected  $3.7 million salary on next season’s cap, above the $2.3 million salary counted against the cap for the addition of a veteran on the minimum scale.

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