The New Orleans Saints are officially entering a new era after veteran quarterback Derek Carr announced his retirement Saturday, coming after a degenerative shoulder condition that would have required season-ending surgery. Carr, 34, steps away after 11 NFL seasons, the last two in New Orleans, leaving the Saints with a glaring vacancy at the league’s most critical position.
The Saints, who recently spent a second-round pick on Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough, now face an uncertain future under center. With only Shough and second-year pro Spencer Rattler on the depth chart-neither of whom has established himself as a franchise-caliber starter-the Saints are widely projected to struggle in 2025 and potentially secure a top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
That scenario has already fueled speculation that Texas quarterback Arch Manning, the latest scion of the Manning dynasty and grandson of Saints legend Archie Manning, could be the answer to New Orleans’ long-term quarterback dilemma.
The connection between the Saints and Arch Manning is obvious, both in name and in narrative. If New Orleans lands the No. 1 pick in 2026, the temptation to draft Manning-should he declare-would be immense. However, sources close to the Manning family and NFL executives caution against assuming that Carr’s retirement will accelerate Arch Manning’s jump to the pros.
Manning, who enters the 2025 season as Texas’ starting quarterback, has thrown fewer than 100 collegiate passes to date. Despite his blue-chip pedigree and flashes of brilliance, most analysts and NFL scouts believe Manning needs more seasoning before making the leap to the NFL. The Manning family, including uncles Peyton and Eli, have consistently emphasized patience and development, preferring Arch to take his time under Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. There is a strong precedent for this approach: both Peyton and Eli Manning returned for additional college seasons despite being projected as high draft picks.
“I think we would be ignoring the family history if we assumed that he was going to be in the 2026 draft,” said NFL insider Albert Breer. “Peyton Manning could’ve gone No. 1 in 1997 and stayed an extra year. Eli Manning came back for a fifth season at Ole Miss. There’s precedent here. They’ve done it their way. They wanted to preserve his childhood and college experience.”
Several NFL executives have hinted that Manning is more likely to stay at Texas for a fourth season rather than declare for the 2026 draft, especially given his limited game experience. The modern era of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals also gives top college players like Manning more incentive to remain in school longer than in past decades. Though, NIL does not seem to be a factor for the Manning family, instead opting for quality development over monetary gains.
“What are we looking at? You’d like to watch a quarterback in double-digit games to really evaluate them… The quarterback position is much different, it requires a much larger bank of film. You want to see him against a variety of different looks,” one AFC college scouting director told Sports Illustrated.
Derek Carr’s retirement undeniably thrusts the Saints into the quarterback market and puts them in prime position to target a generational talent like Arch Manning should he enter the 2026 NFL Draft. All indications from the Manning camp and NFL insiders suggest that the family will not rush his development, even if the stars align for a New Orleans homecoming. Manning’s decision will likely hinge more on his own readiness and family philosophy than on the Saints’ immediate needs.
For now, the multimillion-dollar question remains unanswered: Will Arch Manning declare for the 2026 NFL Draft? The answer, as always with the Mannings, will come on their terms. Rest assured, Manning is in it for the long-term.
This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Could Arch Manning replace Derek Carr in New Orleans? Experts weigh in