American Athletic Conference Football Betting Preview: Can Tulane, Navy Deliver as Favorites? originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
The American Athletic Conference features one of college football’s most intriguing battles at the top of a league in 2025. Six teams – Tulane, UTSA, Memphis, South Florida, Army, and Navy – are clustered in the top tier with little separation going into fall practice. The Black Knights are the reigning AAC champion but will miss quarterback Bryson Daily. The Green Wave reloaded through the portal to keep coach Jon Sumrall’s team in contention for the conference crown, while South Florida and UTSA should have two of the AAC’s top offenses. Memphis is also facing a significant rebuilding effort, but similar to Navy, the Tigers have a favorable slate in AAC play.
Outside of the top, East Carolina and North Texas are two wild-card teams to watch. New coaches at Temple (KC Keeler), Tulsa (Tre Lamb), Charlotte (Tim Albin), Rice (Scott Abell), and Florida Atlantic (Zach Kittley) provide intrigue. UAB enters a make-or-break season for coach Trent Dilfer.
The season is fast approaching, and Athlon Sports writers Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood are continuing their conference betting breakdowns. Having already examined the MAC, Mountain West, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, the American Athletic Conference is now in the spotlight.
ORDER NOW: Athlon Sports 2025 College Football Preview Guide
American Athletic Conference Betting Preview for 2025
Army
Win Total: 7.5 at FanDuel; 7.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +700 at FanDuel; +550 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +200000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Over 7.5 (-140 at DK)
The Black Knights are going to miss quarterback Bryson Daily, but coach Jeff Monken’s team could still be favored to win eight or nine games. Although Army is replacing a good chunk of talent on both sides of the ball, I expect Monken will find a way to reload and keep his team near the top of the AAC (and hit the over).
Kyle Wood: Over 7.5 (-140 at DK)
There’s no two ways about it: The Black Knights will miss quarterback Bryson Daily and running back Kanye Udoh, the top two rushers on the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense. Army acquitted itself well in its AAC debut by going undefeated in league play, but regression is almost a certainty given the turnover and schedule. Still, there’s plenty of room for coach Jeff Monken’s team to take a step back and still deliver on the over.
Charlotte
Win Total: 2.5 at FanDuel; 2.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +10000 at FanDuel; 15000 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +500000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Over 2.5 (-150 at DK)
Tim Albin is one of the offseason’s best hires, and the staff added several impact contributors through the portal. I don’t expect a bowl, but I think the 49ers will at least hit the over on 2.5.
Kyle Wood: Over 2.5 (-150 at DK)
The 49ers have struggled mightily since joining the FBS. But even then, they’ve managed to win three games more often than not. This is a low bar for Charlotte to clear in coach Tim Albin’s debut after a successful tenure at Ohio. A handful of power conference transfers on offense and a solid core back on defense should allow the 49ers to outperform expectations, even against one of the G5’s most grueling schedules.
RELATED: College Football’s Toughest Group of 5 Schedules for 2025
East Carolina
Win Total: 6.5 at FanDuel; 6.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds:+1600 at FanDuel; +1600 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +200000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Under 6.5 (-150 at DK)
The Pirates finished 2024 with momentum, which helped coach Blake Harrell earn the full-time role after an interim stint last year. Even with quarterback Katin Houser returning, recapturing that momentum facing a tough schedule won’t be easy. East Carolina opens at NC State and later plays BYU in Greenville. In AAC play, the Pirates are slated to meet four of the league’s projected top six teams for ‘25.
Kyle Wood: Under 6.5 (-150 at DK)
The Pirates caught fire late last year as coach Blake Harrell and quarterback Katin Houser breathed life into the program. It remains to be seen if they can continue that momentum, though, even if the offense picks up where it left off. Defense is a definite concern and the schedule is demanding. ECU opens on the road at NC State (there’s no love lost between these two teams) and travels to Tulane and UTSA later in the year. Home games against BYU, Army and Memphis won’t be easy, either.
Florida Atlantic
Win Total: 4.5 at FanDuel; 4.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +7000 at FanDuel; +15000 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +500000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Over 4.5 (+114 at FD)
New coach Zach Kittley has a ton of new faces to break in on both sides of the ball. However, an offense led by Western Kentucky transfer quarterback Caden Veltkamp could be among the best in the AAC. With winnable games against FIU, Rice, UAB, Tulsa, Florida A&M, UConn, and East Carolina, I give a slight lean to the over.
Kyle Wood: Over 4.5 (+114 at FD)
The Owls have struggled to find their footing two years into their AAC tenure. Their fortunes could change this fall, though, as FAU welcomes the Western Kentucky coach-quarterback combo of Zach Kittley and Caden Veltkamp. They made a run to the CUSA title game last season — their arrival should at least keep the Owls competitive in the AAC in spite of their defensive shortcomings.
Memphis
Win Total: 8.5 at FanDuel; 8.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +550 at FanDuel; +550 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +80000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Under 8.5 (-145 at DK)
The schedule is favorable, but Memphis lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball and will be a team in transition early in AAC play. Coach Ryan Silverfield needs Nevada transfer Brendon Lewis (or true freshman AJ Hill) to quickly settle in at quarterback and rebuild a defense with just one returning starter. With games against Arkansas, South Florida, Tulane, and Navy at the Liberty Bowl, all of Memphis’ toughest matchups take place at home. However, considering the personnel losses – even with a favorable schedule – I would play the under.
Kyle Wood: Over 8.5 (+115 at DK)
The Tigers are in the midst of their best stretch in program history with 21 wins over the last two years. While this is not the same Memphis team that stunned Tulane on Thanksgiving with quarterback Seth Henigan and much of the defense gone, coach Ryan Silverfield has earned the benefit of the doubt — especially in a wide open AAC. All of the Tigers’ toughest games (Arkansas, South Florida, Tulane and Navy) are in Memphis. Don’t count them out.
Related: Ranking the American Athletic Conference Coaches for 2025
Navy
Win Total: 8.5 at FanDuel; 8.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +430 at FanDuel; +380 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +100000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Over 8.5 (-125 at DK)
Navy’s schedule sets up for a run to the AAC title. The Midshipmen are likely to be favored in nine (or potentially) 10 contests this fall behind quarterback Blake Horvath. The Midshipmen won’t play a FBS team that had a winning record in ’24 until Nov. 8 at Notre Dame. For a team that could win the AAC and finish in the top 25, the over is one of the top plays in the AAC.
Kyle Wood: Over 8.5 (-125 at DK)
The Midshipmen return an experienced roster that stunned Army and upset Oklahoma in their bowl game. Navy will face very little resistance until late in the year when it plays at Notre Dame, hosts South Florida and travels to Memphis before the annual Army-Navy Game. It would behoove coach Brian Newberry’s and Co. to enter that stretch undefeated, and there’s a very good chance that happens with Blake Horvath back under center.
North Texas
Win Total: 6.5 at FanDuel; 6.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +1800 at FanDuel; +2000 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +200000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Under 6.5 (-106 at FD)
Scoring points won’t be a problem for the Mean Green, but the defensive progression under new coordinator Skyler Cassity will determine just how high this team will climb in the AAC. I expect North Texas to go bowling, but I think the schedule and roster situation pushes this team to a six-win ’25.
Kyle Wood: Under 6.5 (-106 at FD)
The Mean Green have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the country the last few years — it’s their defense that has held them back. With another change under center, North Texas’ offense might not be as prolific while the defensive woes could persist. Given the relative ease of the schedule for coach Eric Morris’ team, the over is an attractive option. A bowl game is within reach, but seven regular-season wins is just a bridge too far.
Rice
Win Total: 3.5 at FanDuel; 3.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +7500 at FanDuel; +15000 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +500000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Under 3.5 (+126 at FD)
New coach Scott Abell is a solid hire, but the Owls are also making a significant switch on offense to run the option in 2025. Although the defense should be steady again under coordinator Jon Kay, the schedule doesn’t have many guaranteed victories. As a team in transition, I think the Owls will have trouble hitting the over.
Kyle Wood: Under 3.5 (+126 at FD)
Things might get worse for the Owls before they get better. Rice is undergoing an offensive makeover this offseason in bringing in coach Scott Abell from the FCS. The move to the option might pay off longterm, but in the short term this team will continue to struggle in the AAC. It’s been more than a decade since the Owls posted a winning record, and it’s hard to find many games they’ll be favored in — even with seven at home.
South Florida
Win Total: 6.5 at FanDuel; 6.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +650 at FanDuel; +800 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +100000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Over 6.5 (+110 at DK)
With a non-conference slate that includes Boise State, Florida, and Miami, South Florida has a small margin in conference play to hit the over at 6.5. With quarterback Byrum Brown back in the lineup, along with projected defensive improvement this year, I think the Bulls have just enough to get to 7-5 or 8-4 and contend for a spot in the AAC Championship Game.
Kyle Wood: Over 6.5 (+110 at DK)
The Bulls are an intriguing team in 2025. They profile as one of the best rosters in the Group of 5, led by an ascending coach in Alex Golesh, but they have a rather modest win total. That might have something to do with USF’s exceptionally difficult schedule, which includes a visit from Boise State and games at Florida and Miami. The Bulls will have to pull an upset in one of those games or dominate AAC play, which is no easy task with games at Memphis and Navy. South Florida’s talent should win out, but an 0-3 start could make seven wins a sweat.
Temple
Win Total: 3.5 at FanDuel; 3.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +8500 at FanDuel; +20000 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +1000000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Over 3.5 (+105 at DK)
The schedule isn’t easy, but I’m taking a chance on coach KC Keeler making an instant impact to get to 4-8. The post-spring pickup of transfer quarterback Gevani McCoy gives the Owls an intriguing option under center, while another portal addition (Jay Ducker) will spark a ground game that ranked last in the AAC in ‘24. Even with concerns about the schedule and the defense, I think Keeler’s track record suggests Temple will find a way to steal a game or two this fall.
Kyle Wood: Under 3.5 (-110 at FD)
Wins have been few and far between for the Owls for some time now; they’ve gone 3-9 four years running. Temple hired coach KC Keeler from Sam Houston to get out of that rut. And while there are pieces in place in Philadelphia, it’s going to take time to turn things around. It doesn’t help that the Owls’ easiest conference games (Charlotte, Tulsa) are on the road, where they’ve dropped 20 straight dating back to 2021.
Tulane
Win Total: 8.5 at FanDuel; 8.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +310 at FanDuel; +280 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +50000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Under 8.5 (-130 at FD)
I like the Green Wave as the favorite to win the AAC in 2025 but also think this team will get to the title game at (potentially) 8-4. The non-conference slate is tough with games against Northwestern, South Alabama, Duke, and Ole Miss, and coach Jon Sumrall’s team plays at UTSA and Memphis. Playing the under (and taking a bet on Tulane to win the AAC) is a reasonable split.
Kyle Wood: Under 8.5 (-130 at FD)
It feels wrong to pick against the Green Wave. They’re 32-10 since 2022, and Jon Sumrall’s 9-5 debut in New Orleans included a stretch of eight straight wins. But Tulane lost a lot from last year’s team, including quarterback Darian Mensah in the transfer portal. Mensah left for Duke, which is part of a daunting Green Wave nonconference schedule that includes a road trip to Ole Miss. There’s a world where Tulane goes under in the regular season and still makes it back to the AAC championship.
Tulsa
Win Total: 3.5 at FanDuel; 2.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +15000 at FanDuel; +15000 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +1000000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Under 3.5 (-178 at FD)
New coach Tre Lamb should get Tulsa’s offense on track, but the defense was among the worst in college football last season and might be a season away from major improvement. Even if the Golden Hurricane can get two wins in non-conference play, the AAC slate features games against four of the projected top teams, along with a road date at East Carolina.
Kyle Wood: Under 3.5 (-178 at FD)
The hire of coach Tre Lamb along with the arrival of some impact transfers on offense should help the Golden Hurricane on that side of the ball, but defense will be an issue. Only Kent State allowed more points per game than Tulsa (42.5) in 2024. The nonconference schedule is manageable, but wins in conference play will be few and far between. Just being competitive will be a step up for this team after suffering six losses of 30-plus points last fall.
UAB
Win Total: 4.5 at FanDuel; 4.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +9000 at FanDuel; +15000 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +500000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Under 4.5 (-134 at FD)
It’s a make-or-break year for UAB coach Trent Dilfer. The Blazers took steps to get this program back on track this offseason, as Dilfer overhauled the defensive staff and landed a couple of impact transfers on that side of the ball. Dilfer and coordinator Alex Mortensen should piece together a solid offense, but I’m not sure the defense improves enough to get this team to 5-7 or better.
Kyle Wood: Under 4.5 (-134 at FD)
Coach Trent Dilfer’s time in Birmingham has not gone according to plan. The Blazers are 5-11 in AAC play and 7-17 overall since joining the conference, and there’s little reason to believe 2025 will be significantly different. UAB is rebuilding its offense around quarterback Jalen Kitna and doesn’t project to be much better on defense. There’s an opportunity to pick up a few early wins in nonconference play, but the AAC schedule will be a slog.
UTSA
Win Total: 7.5 at FanDuel; 7.5 at DraftKings
Conference Title Odds: +500 at FanDuel; +550 at DraftKings
National Championship Odds: +100000 at FanDuel; +100000 at DraftKings
Steven Lassan: Over 7.5 (-115 at FD)
The Roadrunners have an interesting roster setup in place for ’25. Behind quarterback Owen McCown and the AAC’s top receiving corps, scoring points won’t be a problem. However, with 11 new starters on defense, this unit may take some time to jell, setting up UTSA in several high-scoring affairs early in the year. Getting Tulane and Army at home is huge for the Roadrunners’ hopes of getting to eight or more wins.
Kyle Wood: Over 7.5 (-115 at FD)
Owen McCown returns as one of the top quarterbacks in the AAC for a Roadrunners team that might have been better than its record indicated. UTSA clearly hit its stride down the stretch, and it will be important to continue that momentum with early games against Texas A&M and Texas State. Drawing Tulane and Army at home is a boon for coach Jeff Traylor’s team, which could boast one of the best offenses in the Group of 5.
Steven’s Best Bets
- Navy Over 8.5
- South Florida Over 6.5
- UAB Under 4.5
- UTSA Over 7.5
Kyle’s Best Bets
- Army Over 7.5
- Florida Atlantic Over 4.5
- Rice Under 3.5
- UAB Under 4.5
Related: American Athletic Conference Football 2025 Predictions
Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2025-26
Related: College Football Top 136 Team Rankings for 2025
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 10, 2025, where it first appeared.