Polls don’t win elections, voters do.

As Canadians head to hockey rinks and community centres to cast ballots Monday, previous predictions and prognostications based on small sample size polling matter little.

However, as the two-horse race between the Conservatives and Liberals approached the finish line over the weekend, the final pre-election polling data continued to suggest the latter would emerge victorious.

Here’s a brief round-up of some recent poll data, all released before election day:

• Liberals hold their breath as they await election results and possible fourth term
• It’s election day in Canada. Here’s what you need to know about the three main party leaders

Abacus Data

From Thursday through Sunday,

Abacus Data

conducted polling of 2,500 Canadians, which it called its “largest sample of the campaign.”

As it did on April 21, their final likely-voter model, which only polls people who’ve already voted or are almost certainly going to, predicts the Liberal party will garner 41 per cent of the popular vote to the Conservatives’ 39 per cent. The NDP and Bloc Québécois are relegated to 10 and six per cent, respectively.

There was little change regionally, with the Tories strongest in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals from Quebec east, and election night battlegrounds setting up in Ontario and B.C. Those results were similar across almost every poll.

While Mark Carney and the Liberals maintain a narrow lead, Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote that a high voter turnout could help Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.

“Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s,” he wrote. “If we’re low — say it pushes well north of 70 per cent — that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37 (per cent).”

🚨Final Abacus Data Poll 🇨🇦

🔴Liberal 41%
🔵Conservative 39%
🟠NDP 10%

Full details on our final #cdnpoli poll: https://t.co/gksgGXXelv pic.twitter.com/XfDyRvmVXl

— Abacus Data (@abacusdataca) April 28, 2025

 

Liason Strategies

A final poll of 1,000 voters conducted on Sunday for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada also gave the Liberals a two-point edge, 43 to 41. The NDP came in at seven percent, followed by the Bloc at six.

Liaison principal David Valentin said election night viewers should remember that current poll results won’t be reflected in early reports from polling stations.

“Until the western ridings start reporting, the numbers will be skewed. The Conservative vote is heavily concentrated in the west, and we’ll need those results to come in before we get a clearer picture of the national popular vote,”

he wrote.

Angus Reid

Polling of 2,820 Canadians carried out by

Angus Reid late last week

gave the Liberals a four-point margin over Poilievre and the Tories, 44-40 per cent. The Bloc, meanwhile, had more support among the decided and leaning voters than the NDP, seven to six percentage points.

A record 7.3 million Canadians voted in advance polling this year, and Angus Reid found that more Liberal than Conservative supporters (46 to 34 per cent) turned out for the four-day voting window.

But it also found the parties deadlocked at 38 per cent among leaning and decided voters who were waiting until Monday to cast a ballot.

Léger

In the

final Postmedia-Léger poll released last week,

the Liberals carried a four-point advantage into election day, 43 to the Conservatives’ 39 per cent.

The NDP and Bloc Québécois were well behind the top two parties, polling at seven and five per cent, respectively.

Fifty-four per cent of the 1,500 people surveyed said they expected the Liberals, and precisely half that amount (27 per cent) foresaw a Conservative victory.

‘Slugging it out’: Liberals up by four points ahead of election, poll finds

More polling data, more of the same

A trio of other polls conducted at the election’s end drew near returned mirroring results.

Mainstreet

had the Liberals claim 43.8 per cent of the vote to secure 177 seats, a gain of 17 and enough to form a majority government. The Conservatives, with 41.5 per cent, would increase their presence in the House of Commons by 16 seats to 135.

The Liberals held a lead of five points (44 to 39 per cent) in a

Research Co.

poll and four points (43 to 39 per cent) in

Pallas Data

’s last poll of the campaign.

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