Josh Pate is one of the biggest names and trusted voices in college football, capable of breaking down the game in the most entertaining and informative manner possible. The dude knows his stuff — it’s why On3 partnering with him was such a needle-mover back in August, right before the start of the 2025 season.
It’s also why it’s a big deal when he says Kentucky is on upset alert for week one when the Wildcats host Toledo.
We’ve been hearing about the Rockets making things interesting in Kroger Field for a long, long, time, but now, Pate is calling his shot — and gave a shoutout to KSR’s Matt Jones along the way. He listed Kentucky vs. Toledo among his top upset alert picks this weekend.
“Everyone’s terrified. This game has been the talk of upset alert circles that I participate in, and I am a member of these clubs. … In the cigar-smoke-filled lounges all summer, it’s, ‘You taking Toledo?’
Well, it’s time to put up or shut up,” Pate said. “They’re going into Lexington, Kentucky is a 10.5-point favorite. This thing got all the way down to 7.5. Someone found some extra money — Matt Jones, somebody up there found some extra money and bet on Kentucky. That thing’s back up to 10.5.”
He laid it out fairly, explaining that it’s a combination of fan apathy for the Wildcats and optimism surrounding the Rockets.
“There is not much juice around the Kentucky program. That’s okay, it’s not the end of the world. It just means they have to possess more than most people think they’re capable of — including their own fan base, from what I can tell,” Pate said. “Zach Calzada is the starting quarterback there, by way of Incarnate Word, by way of Texas A&M. I mean, this dude beat Alabama once upon a time, lest we forget — including me, because I had a credential to the game and I flew home. Yeah, that Zach Calzada.
“Toledo is top-15 in offensive returning production, they are favored to win the MAC. They have an over/under win total of 8.5. That’s one of the highest out of the G5.”
His official pick? An 8.5/10 concern for Kentucky.
“I am petrified of this game. I’m putting an 8.5 on the upset alert concern meter,” he said.
Uh oh.
See all of his week-one picks below:
Do you buy what he’s selling? Time to prove him wrong, Cats.