After a long offseason of nothing but transfer portal and NIL talk, Week 1 of the College Football season is here. There are some monster matchups on the slate and some markets I have attacked.
Lets dive in.
NCAA Football Week 1 Player Props
Arch Manning, QB, Texas at Ohio State: Over 234.5 Passing Yards
In the recent CFP Playoff Semi-Final showdown that served as the de-facto National Championship, UT QB Quinn Ewers threw for 283 yards in the loss. In the leadup to that pivotal game, Texas ripped Georgia for 358 pass yards in the SEC Championship, put up 322 against Arizona State. The lone postseason Under was 202 in a blowout of Clemson where Texas was in control early. In competitive games against elite competition, HC Steve Sarkisian goes to the air. Having watched Manning, one thing is clear – he does not like to check the ball down and is a legitimate big game hunter who wants to push the ball downfield. He is a far superior quarterback than Quinn Ewers and has two full years of experience in the system, plus the family legacy. OSU lost their DC Jim Knowles (Penn State) and a truckload of talent from their national title squad (85th in returning D production), especially when it comes to pressure generation with OSU ranking Top 5 in havoc rate, sack rate, and yards per dropback allowed last year. If Arch has time he is going to feast, period. I’m playing Arch Manning Over 236.5 Passing Yards, plus I also sprinkled on the 275+ (+200) and 300+ (+310) ALT lines.
Damian Alston, RB, Auburn v. Baylor: Under 53.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog
We’re getting great numbers on these two Week 1 early releases, as Alston is vying to replace Rams 4th Round RB Jarquez Hunter but has major competition from UConn transfer Durell Robinson, all-purpose weapon Jeremiah Cobb and a pair of talented freshmen in Alvin Henderson and Omar Mabson. With Alston already dinged up in camp amidst an unsettled depth chart, the group’s touches are very much up in the air. HC Dave Aranda’s Baylor D allowed 4.7 YPC LY and just brought in a pair of monstrous 325-pound+ transfer defensive tackles in Samu Taumanupepe (Texas A&M) and Adonis Friloux (Tulane) specifically to beef up an undersized DL that didn’t have a 300-pounder on the defensive roster in 2024. Game script-wise, Baylor returns 18 starters from a team that finished the regular season on a 6-0 run and features a potent offense that will average 35+ PPG and can put stress on an Auburn offense that eclipsed 21 points in SEC play just twice all season (43 vs. A&M in OT | 24 vs. Kentucky).
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina at Virginia Tech: Over 217.5 Passing Yards
In South Carolina’s last 10 games, Sellers has thrown for 238 yards or more in 7 of them. The only three times he did not clear that number were against the elite defenses of @Clemson (28th in D SP+), @Oklahoma (17th) and Ole Miss (3rd). While VT’s defense ranked a respectable 35th in SP+ last season, they lose all four starters in the secondary including NFL draft choice CB Dorian Strong and star CB Mansoor Delane (7 PBU/4 INTs) who is starting for LSU this season. While they import six transfers to bolster the depleted defensive backfield, it’s hard to believe that Virginia Tech’s secondary will be able to suppress the high-octane Sellers as he enters his second season as the Gamecocks’ starting quarterback.
NCAA Football Season Long Player Props
Jaydn Ott, RB, Oklahoma: Under 700.5 Rushing Yards (-115) | Prize Picks
Jaydn Ott averaged an unthinkable 1.96 YAC with 35.3% of his rushes getting stopped for no gain or less. His Cal backfield mate Jaivian Thomas was stopped for a loss only 16% of the time and was able to gain 3.63 yards before contact as opposed to Ott’s 1.42. Both the data and eyes test foretell Ott having difficulty establishing a full-time role in a much deeper Oklahoma backfield. Last season’s incumbent #1 rusher Jovantae Barnes has returned from injury and has been leading the RB group in early practices and is RB1 on the recent depth chart, with Ott already missing time due to injury in camp and being listed at RB3. That’s a troubling sign for a player who struggled with nagging ailments in 2024 and is already competing with highly touted youngsters like Taylor Tatum, Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson for totes. Thrown in the step up to SEC-level defenses, and I’m giving an Under 700.5 Rushing Yards recommendation on Ott.
Malachi Fields, WR, Notre Dame: Under 550.5 Receiving Yards
Jaden Greathouse led the Irish with 42 receptions for 592 yards and four touchdowns last year in 16 games. Since our bets are graded through the 12-game regular season, that is an extremely modest total for a WR1 even in ND’s run-first offense. We should also account for the fact that Greathouse exploded for 13 receptions on 16 targets for 233 yards and three touchdowns in Notre Dame’s final two playoff games. Wisconsin transfer Will Pauling has fit right into the starting slot role and has such a diligent work ethic he’s been reported to have slept at the practice facility a time or two. While Fields was very productive as the lone receiving threat for a Virginia team that was firmly in chuck & duck mode having gotten blown out in five of their last six games. He is now tasked with trying to penetrate a talented ND WR room where he will have to earn #1WR status if he has any hope of beating his season-long receiving yardage line. ND will start a very inexperienced QB in CJ Carr (or Nate Minchey) and boasts arguably the deepest RB room in the nation paired with a Top 10 offensive line. All recipes for an Under 550.5 Receiving Yards on Fields.
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon: Over 500.5 Receiving Yards
I had the privilege of being on the field for Oregon’s Big Ten opener against UCLA last year. Starting TE Terrence Ferguson exited the game after taking a hard hit over the middle, which resulted in Sadiq getting extended action. He did not disappoint, with Sadiq fitting the mold of a freak NFL prospect with unnatural acceleration and agility for a player his size. In the offseason Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden and Ferguson departed, while projected WR1 Evan Stewart sustained a season ending injury in the spring leaving the door open for a potential 80-target season in Sadiq’s future. I envision Sadiq being flexed all over the formation and given scripted touches in creative ways one of the most powerful teams in the country. He is the College Fantasy TE1 and I project him in the 650-receiving yards range making this play an easy OVER.
Enjoy Week 1 and follow me (@CFFroton) all season for my analysis and plays. Best of luck.