NFL Win/Loss Preview Series: New Orleans Saints originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
Maybe it’s me but it may already be time to sound the black and gold alarms down in Nola. The Saints finished 2024 with the least amount of wins (5) in the National Football Conference, tied with the Panthers and Bears — except those two teams project to add multiple wins this season. Lacking a reliable answer under center, can the Saints avoid a total nosedive? I’m not so sure…
SAINTS’ WIN/LOSS ODDS:
- Over 2.5 Wins: (-650) // Under 2.5 Wins: (+480)
- Over 3.5 Wins: (-280) // Under 3.5 Wins: (+230)
- Over 5.5 Wins: (+125) // Under 5.5 Wins: (-140)
Oddsmakers clearly place a slim chance on a 2025 breakout with these lines, yet I’m significantly more bearish more than that. The Saints already lacked explosivity plus positive quarterback play, evidenced in the bottom-tier offensive macros: 19.9 PPG, 320.1 Yards/Game, -60 Net Yard Differential, 43.1% Success Rate, -0.05 EPA/Play. Oof. Point is, they’d be in rough shape without a QB issue.
Granted, a handful of teams finished worse in EPA than New Orleans (image below) — but what do you notice about the other teams (DAL, NE, NYG, LV, TEN) further down and to the left? Every single one of them made moves to answer the only question that matters in the NFL.
Then, the hammer really fell in early May…
Derek Carr announces his retirement from the NFL
🏈 11 seasons
🏈 4x Pro Bowler
🏈 257 TDs
🏈 41k passing yards (top 25 all-time)
🏈 3rd-place in 2016 MVP vote https://t.co/cbS10XuAn6pic.twitter.com/Z9oN3IIz5W— NFL (@NFL) May 10, 2025
Sure, Derek Carr’s shoulder injury was no state secret. That said, the extent must’ve at least been up in the air somewhat to make that kind of announcement after the draft. Now an injury-riddled team in need of better QB play finds itself turning to second-round selection Tyler Shough (Pick 2.40) as its leader. Yes, the nearly 26-year-old rookie without a single +3,200 passing yard or 25 TD season on the CFB ledger will be asked to take over a last place team heading in the wrong direction.
As if the offense weren’t enough of a concern, the Saints defense perhaps demanded more attention this offseason. Unable to stop the opposition in either phase (4.9 Yards/Rush, 11.7 Yards/Completion), few teams posted worse defensive macros than New Orleans in 2024: 379.9 Yards/Game, -0.03 EPA/Play, 34.1 Average Drive Distance Allowed.
While not totally complacent in free agency, signing potential impact players DT Davon Godchaux, DE Chase Young, and S Justin Reid it still feels like too little too late for a bottom-5 tackling unit (47.9% Tackle Success). I charted last season’s defensive plays and yards allowed/play to offer some perspective on how far outlying this roster performed (image above) in 2024. Mix in a vastly improved division and you can see these Saints occupying the NFC’s basement all by themselves come wintertime.
LAGHEZZA’S LEAN:
Smash the unders! With a non-zero chance New Orleans doesn’t currently roster a viable NFL quarterback, things could get worse, and fast — I’m getting action down on Saints Under 3.5 Wins (+240) as well as NFL’s Worst Record (+425).
BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY
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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 9, 2025, where it first appeared.