Going The Distance — Out Prop Parlay originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

Newsflash… betting baseball’s hard. So, rather than attack extremely sharp general markets, it’s no surprise many sharps moved their action into player props.

Out props continue to gain prevalence — so I’ve got another simple-to-use, hard-to-find data set that will surely save you time researching. I scrape every probable starter’s outs recorded per game, plus pitches per plate appearance (P/PA), and compare them to the opposing team’s Swing Rate.

STARTING PITCHER EFFICIENCY

• ATL Spencer Schwellenbach — 19.4 Out/G, 3.6 P/PA vs. PHI 3.9 P/PA, 47.8% Swing
• SEA Bryan Woo — 19.0 Out/G, 3.6 P/PA vs. TEX 3.9 P/PA, 49.6% Swing
• TB Zack Littell — 18.2 Out/G, 3.5 P/PA vs. BAL 4.0 P/PA, 48.4% Swing
• KC Seth Lugo — 17.8 Out/G, 4.0 P/PA vs. LAD 3.9 P/PA, 46.5% Swing
• CHW Adrian Houser — 17.6 Out/G, 3.8 P/PA vs. SF 4.0 P/PA, 46.0% Swing
• CIN Andrew Abbott — 17.3 Out/G, 4.0 P/PA vs. SD 3.8 P/PA, 47.6% Swing
• NYY Clarke Schmidt — 17.3 Out/G, 3.9 P/PA vs. ATH 3.8 P/PA, 47.9% Swing
• TOR Chris Bassitt — 17.3 Out/G, 3.8 P/PA vs. BOS 3.9 P/PA, 49.3% Swing
• SF Robbie Ray — 17.3 Out/G, 4.0 P/PA vs. CHW 3.9 P/PA, 47.4% Swing
• PHI Jesus Luzardo — 16.9 Out/G, 4.0 P/PA vs. ATL 4.0 P/PA, 47.7% Swing
• BAL Zach Eflin — 16.6 Out/G, 3.6 P/PA vs. TB 3.9 P/PA, 48.8% Swing
• DET Casey Mize — 16.6 Out/G, 3.7 P/PA vs. MIN 3.9 P/PA, 46.9% Swing
• LAA Kyle Hendricks — 16.4 Out/G, 3.7 P/PA vs. WSH 3.8 P/PA, 47.3% Swing
• MIN Bailey Ober — 16.1 Out/G, 3.7 P/PA vs. DET 3.9 P/PA, 47.8% Swing
• PIT Bailey Falter — 16.0 Out/G, 3.7 P/PA vs. NYM 4.0 P/PA, 47.0% Swing
• WSH Mike Soroka — 15.9 Out/G, 3.9 P/PA vs. LAA 3.9 P/PA, 47.1% Swing
• CLE Slade Cecconi — 15.9 Out/G, 3.6 P/PA vs. STL 3.9 P/PA, 46.9% Swing
• CHC Colin Rea — 15.6 Out/G, 3.8 P/PA vs. HOU 3.7 P/PA, 48.4% Swing
• STL Miles Mikolas — 15.4 Out/G, 3.7 P/PA vs. CLE 3.9 P/PA, 48.7% Swing
• BOS Lucas Giolito — 15.4 Out/G, 3.9 P/PA vs. TOR 3.8 P/PA, 48.0% Swing
• ATH JP Sears — 15.2 Out/G, 4.0 P/PA vs. NYY 4.0 P/PA, 46.4% Swing
• MIL Quinn Priester — 15.0 Out/G, 3.9 P/PA vs. COL 3.8 P/PA, 50.3% Swing
• ARI Brandon Pfaadt — 15.0 Out/G, 3.9 P/PA vs. MIA 3.8 P/PA, 48.3% Swing
• SD Randy Vasquez — 15.0 Out/G, 3.7 P/PA vs. CIN 3.9 P/PA, 45.4% Swing
• MIA Sandy Alcantara — 14.8 Out/G, 4.0 P/PA vs. ARI 3.9 P/PA, 46.5% Swing
• COL Antonio Senzatela — 14.4 Out/G, 3.7 P/PA vs. MIL 3.9 P/PA, 45.6% Swing
• NYM Paul Blackburn — 13.1 Out/G, 4.1 P/PA vs. PIT 3.9 P/PA, 46.6% Swing
• HOU Lance McCullers Jr. — 12.5 Out/G, 4.3 P/PA vs. CHC 3.9 P/PA, 48.0% Swing
• TEX Kumar Rocker — 12.5 Out/G, 3.8 P/PA vs. SEA 4.0 P/PA, 47.4% Swing

Unlike walks and strikeouts, only standard two-way markets exist for pitcher outs. Therefore, pricing’s especially important — as well as setting parameters around popular hook points (like avoiding a costly O18.5 or u14.5).

For overs, look to target the most efficient pitchers with the lowest pitches/PA against offenses ranking highest in swing rate.

Conversely, teams that take a lot pitches make great spots for unders — especially anywhere with field temperatures north of 100 degrees (I mention that last part because it cost us a Sonny Gray prop last week).

LAGHEZZA’S LEANS:

Not in love with today’s board — all my overs are attached to 18.5 and I don’t chase up that high.

🛑 NO ACTION TODAY, SORRY 🛑

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 28, 2025, where it first appeared.