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The warning signs were there for the Indianapolis Colts.
Anthony Richardson had just 13 career college starts. He had accuracy issues. He wasn’t consistent. There was a lot of work that needed to be done.
The Colts ignored all of that, instead focusing on Richardson’s impressive physical profile. Looking back, he probably would have been a great mid-round developmental pick. The Colts took him fourth overall.
“I didn’t want to look up and watch him be a superstar somewhere else,” Colts general manager Chris Ballard said in a team documentary after the draft.
The tone from Ballard about two years later was a lot different, when he declared the Colts would have an open competition at quarterback. That’s why the Colts paid Daniel Jones $14 million on a one-year deal.
“It’s gotta be the right guy to create real competition,” Ballard said this offseason, via the team’s site. “But we want to create real competition. I think it’s good for the team; I think it’s good for Anthony.”
The competition might never materialize, and not because Richardson has put to rest all concerns about his viability as an NFL starter. Richardson missed June minicamp with a shoulder injury. He sought a second opinion, which usually isn’t a great sign. The Colts couldn’t commit to him being ready for training camp. Jones might win the job by default.
This is how the Richardson story has gone for the Colts. There have been a few highlights. There have been many more frustrations over his ineffectiveness as a passer, and setbacks due to injuries. If the Colts get to camp and Richardson is missing practice, limited when he does practice or compromised by his shoulder, it’s hard to believe head coach Shane Steichen (who is on the hot seat) would gamble his job on a quarterback who is unable to show tangible progress before the season starts.
The Colts were 8-9 last season, but it seemed like they were much worse due to the Richardson issue. Richardson was benched early in the season, and got his job back only because Joe Flacco was bad too. Richardson’s completion percentage for the season was 47.7%. The only other quarterbacks since 1988 with at least 250 attempts and a completion percentage under 48% are Stan Gelbaugh, Heath Shuler, Craig Whelihan, Akili Smith and Tim Tebow. Richardson was 12.9% worse in completion percentage than any other quarterback that had 250 attempts last season. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in completion percentage at 72.9%; Richardson would have had to complete 245 passes in a row last season to match that. Despite all that, the Colts were close to a .500 team.
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Quarterback play, whether it’s Richardson’s progress or Jones’ ability to turn his career around, is the key issue hovering over the Colts going into this season. The Colts won eight games even with a team passer rating of 75.8, which was 31st in the NFL. There’s plenty of talent on offense, like running back Jonathan Taylor, receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and new rookie tight end Tyler Warren. The defense was good enough to keep the Colts in games. Steichen might be a good coach, just one that hasn’t been able to fix Richardson’s problems. But it’s hard to get excited for the Colts if the quarterback play is near the bottom again.
Plenty is riding on Richardson or Jones playing well this season. Ballard and Steichen can’t feel comfortable, especially after the death of longtime owner Jim Irsay. Irsay was patient with Ballard and Steichen, and especially Ballard, even as many fans wanted change. Irsay believed in them, but now his daughters are in charge. It’s also hard to believe the Colts would try again with Richardson in 2026 if he doesn’t show improvement this season, and we can’t even know if he’ll get the chance to start. If the Colts have a losing season, there could be a total roster teardown, especially if there’s a new general manager and coach.
The Colts drafted Richardson knowing there was risk involved. It’s just two years into the experiment, but it’s looking grim on that gamble working out.
Offseason grade
The Colts set out to get help for the secondary, find some quarterback competition and also add a playmaker at tight end. They signed cornerback Charvarius Ward (three years, $54 million) and safety Camryn Bynum (four years, $60 million), which gave the secondary a much-needed boost. Daniel Jones was signed on a one-year deal for $14 million, which was unfortunately necessary due to Anthony Richardson’s struggles. In the draft, the Colts picked tight end Tyler Warren. He was considered a top-10 prospect by many and it was a bit surprising he was available to the Colts at No. 14. The Colts also lost some key players: Offensive linemen Will Fries and Ryan Kelly and defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo signed elsewhere, and those are big losses.
Grade: C
Quarterback report
Daniel Jones wasn’t great with the New York Giants, but how much of that is Giants malaise? Ask Saquon Barkley how much it can help to get out of New York. Jones has had some good stretches of play, but his middling 84.3 career passer rating tells plenty of his story. He has never thrown for more than 3,205 yards in a season and since throwing for 24 touchdowns as a rookie, he has 46 passing touchdowns in his last five seasons combined. Jones has 69 career starts, so it’s not like he’s inexperienced. At age 28, he’s probably not changing much as a player. Richardson turned 23 years old in May and the Colts’ best-case scenario is him being healthy, winning the starting job in August and taking a big third-year leap. But if that doesn’t happen, Jones can at least be a reasonable starter. Just one who’s unlikely to be a long-term answer.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Time may be running out on the Anthony Richardson experiment in Indianapolis, as the Colts signed free-agent QB Daniel Jones for competition. The offense lost some pieces on the offensive line (but added first-round tight end Tyler Warren in the draft), while the defense added Cam Bynum and Charvarius Ward to strengthen a good unit. The Colts (+300) are tied with the Jaguars for the second-best odds to win the AFC South at BetMGM, but their season will likely come down to whether Richardson or Jones can take the next step forward under center. The Colts are strong favorites (-210) to miss the playoffs again.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Tyler Warren was a catch machine his final year at Penn State, securing 101 passes for 1,233 yards. And we’ve seen rookie tight ends make a fantasy splash in each of the last two seasons. But Warren’s onboarding with the Colts might be a bumpy one, given the limitations of quarterbacks Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. There’s also a crowding issue, as Indianapolis has a number of capable pass-catchers in the wide receiver room. Warren’s tight end ADP has risen to TE13 in Yahoo rooms, too optimistic for me.”
Stat to remember
The Colts weren’t particularly great at anything last season, but they were a top-10 rushing team. Despite a mostly broken passing game, the Colts were eighth in the NFL in rushing yards and eighth in yards per carry. Plenty of that can be credited to Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 1,431 yards in a true workhorse role. He had 303 carries while no other Colts running back had more than 56. Taylor averaged 4.7 yards per carry with a massive workload. Taylor is entering his sixth season and last season was his second time amassing more than 300 carries, so wear and tear starts to become a concern. There could be more help for Taylor with the signing of Khalil Herbert and the drafting of DJ Giddens at the position. But Taylor will get plenty of work. If the Colts are going to be successful this season, better quarterback play is the most important factor. But right after that might be Taylor again handling a huge number of carries and maintaining his level of effectiveness.
Burning question
Can Lou Anarumo turn around the defense?
Not long ago, when the Cincinnati Bengals were seemingly the only team that could figure out Patrick Mahomes and making a Super Bowl, Anarumo was treated as a defensive genius. A few years later, the Bengals fired him. The Colts obviously blame the Bengals for not getting Anarumo enough talent because they hired Anarumo to replace Gus Bradley, who was fired. Anarumo is known for a wide-ranging defensive scheme designed to confuse quarterbacks with multiple looks. He has been particularly good getting the most out of his defensive backs, which is a good fit for Indianapolis and its thin secondary. The Colts weren’t great on defense last season, but not bad either, finishing 15th in DVOA and in the middle of the road in most per-play stats (the run defense was stronger than the pass defense, which was below average across the board). The line is pretty strong, especially if 2024 first-round pick Laiatu Latu continues to improve. It’s not like Anarumo is starting with a bottom-five unit. How quickly the Colts pick up the scheme will be huge. We also need to find out if Anarumo still has that magic that everyone praised him for just a few years ago.
Best-case scenario
A Colts team that was bad throwing the ball (31st in passer rating as a team) and not much better against the pass (22nd in passer rating allowed) was not eliminated from playoff contention until an embarrassing Week 17 loss to a horrible New York Giants team. Part of Indianapolis posting a decent record was five wins by three or fewer points, but the Colts probably would have been a playoff team if they were just a little better passing the ball. The Colts’ hope is that signing Daniel Jones pushes Anthony Richardson to improve and have a third-year breakout. The raw physical skills are not in question. He could show rapid improvement in his third season. But that’s harder to project now due to his shoulder injury. If Richardson puts it all together, he could be a devastating dual-threat player. And Richardson has so little experience that a big jump in his development could happen. If Richardson is healthy and better, the Colts can make the playoffs. And while it wouldn’t be ideal in the big picture, if Jones takes over and provides adequate quarterback play (he could be a stabilizing player for Indianapolis’ pass catchers), the Colts could be a playoff contender in that situation as well.
Nightmare scenario
If Daniel Jones is starting Week 1, it’s not the best sign. That means Anthony Richardson’s injury affected his training camp reps, or he wasn’t good enough to win the job. If Richardson doesn’t start the season, it gets harder to see a path to the Colts feeling comfortable with him as their quarterback of the future, even though he’s just 23 years old. While there’s a scenario in which Jones plays well enough to take the Colts to the playoffs, he’s on a one-year deal and has a longer history of mediocre play. That would just complicate things for the Colts going forward. There are even worse scenarios, like Richardson playing and not making any strides, then Jones also cratering and the Colts being well out of contention. The rest of the Colts roster seems fairly bankable, it’s just the quarterback that’s a massive wild card. If the Colts finish with another losing season, we might see changes at general manager, coach and quarterback. There’s a lot on the line this season.
The crystal ball says
It’s hard to predict the Colts’ season because Anthony Richardson’s health is uncertain going into training camp. At this point, Daniel Jones should probably be considered the favorite to start Week 1. And where would that leave the Colts? Jones could be the latest quarterback to reinvent himself with a new team after failing in his first stop, but it’s more likely he replicates his underwhelming play we saw for six seasons with the Giants. Richardson seems likely to start at some point, whether he wins the job in August or takes over because Jones is not the answer, but who knows what to expect of him after last seasons’s issues. It seems hard to believe GM Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen survive without at least a winning season. If the Colts deliver another losing season and there’s no significant progress with Richardson, it seems likely that Indianapolis will be starting all over in 2026.