The most critical injury to the Lions season – and the #1 injury story of 2024 – occurred on October 13, during the 47-9 blowout win over the Cowboys.
During this otherwise festive game for Lions fans, disaster struck in the third quarter when Aidan Hutchinson fractured his tibia and fibula. Repercussions were felt the rest of the season culminating in the playoff loss.
LEFT TIBIA/FIBULA FRACTURE VIDEO – October 13, 2024
IMPACT ON 2024 SEASON
This was the top injury news of the season because of the devastating impact to the team. Behind Jared Goff, Hutchinson was likely the second-most critical player on the entire team due to his positional value, elite performance, and irreplaceability.
Pass rush was already a major concern entering the season even with Hutchinson healthy. It got worse in Week 3 when two front-seven starters – Marcus Davenport, EDGE and Derrick Barnes, LB – had season-ending injuries. When Hutchinson was hurt in Week 6, the situation looked dire.
With the defensive line struggling to generate a pass rush, the Lions responded by trading for Za’Darius Smith in Week 10. No one was able to come close to replacing Hutchinson’s production though. When you look at the final team stats, Hutchinson still finished with the team lead in sacks despite missing 13 games.
Here are the season sack totals:
- Hutchinson 7.5
- Smith 4.0 (in 8 games with Lions)
- Alim McNeill 3.5
- DJ Reader 3.0
- Al-Quadin Muhammad 3.0
Further season-ending injuries to key defenders McNeil and Carlton Davis (both in Week 15) compounded the loss of Hutchinson. Credit to the rest of the team for losing only one more regular season game following Hutchinson’s injury – finishing with a 15-2 record and the #1 seed.
However, the lack of pass rush caught up to the team in the 45-31 playoff loss to the Commanders. The defense did not register a single sack and only forced one punt all game.
SPECULATION ON SUPER BOWL RETURN
The big, recurring question after the injury was whether Hutchinson might return for the Super Bowl. Typically, a tib/fib fracture carries a 6+ month timeline, so a Super Bowl return at the 4-month mark would have been aggressive.
However, the Super Bowl is not a normal game, and there are many examples of players who have returned extremely early in recovery to play in that game – Terrell Owens (ankle fracture) 2005, Thomas Davis (forearm fracture) 2016, and Brandon Graham (triceps) 2025.
The Super Bowl speculation was started in the days after the injury by sources close to Hutchinson, who stated an early return was a possibility due to the uncomplicated nature of the injury. Dan Campbell, in the first week after the injury, also offered an anticipated 4-6 month timeline. In December, Hutchinson himself fueled the speculation by saying he was “on track” to play in the Super Bowl.
While he would not have been close to full strength for the big game, a limited return would still have provided an emotional boost to the team and fanbase. Unfortunately, the Lions did not make it that far to see if the inspirational return might happen.
INJURY OUTLOOK
The outlook for Hutchinson’s recovery is very good, as the injury spared his joints and there were no signs of any complications. But there are still some hurdles to overcome. Residual effects of the injury, or discomfort with the metal hardware are possible. The other hurdle is a mental one, which could include a tweak to his technique.
Does Hutchinson need to adjust his technique to avoid a recurrence?
Hutchinson’s tib/fib fracture is at least the second time his leg has whipped around in a powerful fashion. The first time was in 2023, when the impact spared Hutchinson, but injured Alim McNeill’s MCL. McNeill was placed on IR and missed four weeks.
Here are the still frames comparing the two incidents:
Whether this leg action is a fluke or something more pervasive would require exhaustive film review – not just of Hutchinson but of other elite edge rushers. The results of this kind of review would help determine if a technique adjustment is warranted.
Can he overcome the mental hurdles?
If Hutchinson is worried about a recurrence, this could impact his aggressiveness and productivity. If he decides to adjust his technique, this will take time and reps before he’s comfortable again. Either way, it may take some time to mentally get back to the level he was playing at prior to injury.
EXPECTATIONS GOING FORWARD
Hutchinson was deemed a “full” participant at June OTA which signals that he will be ready for the season. This recovery timeline is in-line with typical expectations for a tib/fib fracture.
As far as a return to previous level of performance, that remains to be seen. I think the odds are good, and Vegas agrees, as he is currently one of the top 3 consensus betting favorites to win the 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The other favorites are Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett.
CONTRACT IMPLICATIONS
Hutchinson is entering the fourth year of his rookie contract and is eligible for an extension. His 5th-year option was picked up, but I don’t expect the Lions to wait until then to extend him. He will start the 2025 season at a youthful 25 years old and should be in his prime for many more years.
Despite his injury, expect him to get the biggest, non-QB contract in the history of the NFL very soon, so he can continue to make these kinds of ridiculous plays in Honolulu Blue….
This article originally appeared on Lions Wire: Top 10 injury news of the Lions 2024 season – #1: Aidan Hutchinson