MLB Probable Starters Plus Underdog Winners, 6/20 originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
“Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I’ll spend the first four sharpening the axe.” Part of the struggle betting baseball on a daily basis comes down to handling the massive amount of data attached to each slate, beginning with the day’s probables. Word to the wise — before you start opening 1,000 different Chrome tabs chasing info, get all your ducks in a row first.
Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to help solidify that foundation bright and early every day.
Friday June 20th, 2025
- 2:20pm EST — O/U 9.5
SEA George Kirby: +113; 46.9% Implied Probability
CHC Matthew Boyd: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability
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- 6:40pm EST — O/U 7.5
TEX Jacob deGrom: -185; 64.9% Implied Probability
PIT Mike Burrows: +155; 39.2% Implied Probability
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- 7:05pm EST — O/U 8.5
DET Jack Flaherty: -103; 50.7% Implied Probability
TB Shane Baz: -114; 53.3% Implied Probability
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- 7:05pm EST — O/U 8.5
BAL Tomoyuki Sugano: +194; 34.0% Implied Probability
NYY Max Fried: -233; 70.0% Implied Probability
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- 7:07pm EST — O/U 8.5
CHW Davis Martin: +179; 35.8% Implied Probability
TOR Spencer Turnbull: -213; 68.1% Implied Probability
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- 7:05pm EST — O/U 8.5
ATL Didier Fuentes: -141; 58.5% Implied Probability
MIA Janson Junk: +120; 45.5% Implied Probability
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- 7:15pm EST — O/U 8.5
NYM TBD; +188; 34.7% Implied Probability
PHI Zack Wheeler; -227; 69.4% Implied Probability
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- 7:15pm EST — O/U 8.5
CIN Brady Singer; +114; 46.7% Implied Probability
STL Andre Pallante; -133; 57.1% Implied Probability
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- 8:10pm EST — O/U 7.5
MIL Jacob Misiorowski; +136; 42.4% Implied Probability
MIN Joe Ryan; -160; 61.5% Implied Probability
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- 8:40pm EST — O/U 11.5
ARI Zac Gallen -189; 65.4% Implied Probability
COL Austin Gomber; +158; 38.8% Implied Probability
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- 9:38pm EST — O/U 7.5
HOU Hunter Brown; -182; 64.5% Implied Probability
LAA Yusei Kikuchi; +153; 39.5% Implied Probability
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- 9:40pm EST — O/U 7.5
KC Michael Lorenzen; +155; 39.2% Implied Probability
SD Nick Pivetta; -182; 64.5% Implied Probability
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- 10:05pm EST — O/U 9.5
CLE Tanner Bibee; -125; 55.6% Implied Probability
ATH Jeffrey Springs; +106; 48.5% Implied Probability
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- 10:10pm EST — O/U 8.5
WSH MacKenzie Gore; +168; 37.3% Implied Probability
LAD Clayton Kershaw; -200; 66.7% Implied Probability
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- 10:15pm EST — O/U 7.5
BOS Hunter Dobbins; +111; 47.4% Implied Probability
SF Hayden Birdsong; -130; 56.5% Implied Probability
LAGHEZZA’S LEANS:
Yesterday’s dog went 2-2 — Remember a 50% hit rate at plus money equals profit!
My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today’s are SEA, DET, CHW, MIA, MIL, and BOS. Remember, baseball’s inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term.
Thanks so much for reading — it’s been so exciting getting to interact with all my new friends here at Athlon Sports. If you’re interested in upping your analytical game, come find out what all the hubbub’s about regarding my best-selling MLB/NFL Substack page.
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 20, 2025, where it first appeared.