Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
About a week ago, as his breakup with President Donald Trump went supernova, multibillionaire Elon Musk hit on a favorite idea among political dilettantes: “A new political party is needed in America to represent the 80% in the middle!”
Musk is no centrist, and his highest-profile policy moves have been widely unpopular, so who knows what kind of party he’s imagining. But the general idea—a party that appeals to a so-called middle majority—has recently been promoted by TV-friendly businessman Mark Cuban, presidential also-ran Andrew Yang, and the enervate political organization No Labels.
But these elites are all missing the same crucial fact: A political party that focuses on broadly popular policies already exists.
It’s the Democratic Party.
Musk’s “80% in the middle” dream demonstrates his extreme political naivete. Eighty percent of Americans agree on only a handful of policies, like having the Food and Drug Administration inspect food or requiring car companies to submit accident data on self-driving vehicles—and Musk is adamantly against the latter. But when it comes to more expansive party-defining policies, like those around abortion rights or health care, an 80% consensus very rarely exists.
But let’s be generous to this man who does not deserve it and say he basically means “a decisive majority of Americans”—say, 60%. After all, that’s about the share of Americans (58%) who want a viable third party to exist, according to Gallup. So what would a party of the 60% believe?
A party of the 60% would increase taxes on billionaires and large corporations, raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, and pour more federal funding into affordable housing. Its economic agenda would also expand antitrust enforcement against Big Tech and advocate for stricter environmental regulations, even if they cost jobs and dent the economy. This hypothetical party would prioritize expanding wind and solar power over fossil fuels, and it would want to tax corporations based on how much carbon they release. Hell, this party would even favor making power plants completely eliminate carbon emissions by 2040.
A party of the 60% would support abortion being legal in most or all cases. It would see the government as responsible for ensuring all Americans have health insurance. It would strongly support Medicare, Medicaid, and the Affordable Care Act. It would want to pour billions into research for women’s health and cap yearly out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs on all insurance plans. It would support creating a public option for health insurance and lowering the enrollment age for Medicare from 65 to 60, though it wouldn’t be sold on Medicare for all. Nonetheless, this party would increase benefits for Social Security and Medicare.
A party of the 60% would believe it’s too easy to legally obtain a gun in the U.S. It would fight for banning assault rifles and implementing universal background checks and red-flag laws.
A party of the 60% would want to provide free college tuition to low- and middle-income families and free breakfast and lunch to students at public schools. It would maintain that kids should be required to get vaccinated in order to attend public school. And while the party wouldn’t have a solid stance on school vouchers, it would support increasing funding for public schools over putting that new money into private-school vouchers.
A party of the 60% would support protecting access to contraception, legalizing recreational marijuana, implementing universal paid family and medical leave, increasing food assistance for low-income families, setting term limits for Supreme Court justices, and providing many types of foreign aid, especially when it comes to donating food and medicine.
Sound familiar? All of these policies are supported by at least 60% of respondents, and virtually all of them are parts of the Democratic Party’s platform—and reviled by the Republican Party.
But what about immigration, which is arguably Trump’s signature issue?
Last summer, 55% of Americans wanted to decrease the number of immigrants coming into the U.S. And this past January, a majority (53%) supported “arresting and deporting millions of illegal immigrants,” according to a YouGov/Economist poll. (Notably, both figures are less than 60%.)
However, when asked more detailed questions, the public is more liberal. For instance, 61% of Americans oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who are longtime U.S. residents and haven’t committed a crime, according to a new YouGov poll for The Economist. Majorities of Americans also oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as kids (61%), who are married to a U.S. citizen (66%), or who have young children who are U.S. citizens (54%).
The same poll doesn’t even find majority support for deporting undocumented immigrants convicted of nonviolent crimes. Only 47% support such deportations. (Of course, as research consistently shows, undocumented immigrants are less likely than U.S. citizens to commit crimes.)
Other polling shows that majorities oppose deportation raids at funerals, weddings, churches, schools, playgrounds, and other sensitive areas. And only 15% of Americans who support “some” deportations for undocumented immigrants would kick out those who have a job, according to the Pew Research Center.
When faced with the details, Americans end up being pretty sympathetic toward undocumented migrants—and closer to Democrats’ stance than the deport-them-all position pushed by Republicans. After all, 64% of Americans say that undocumented immigrants should be able to stay if they meet certain requirements, like passing a background check or having a job. And 61% support providing such immigrants with a pathway to citizenship.
These “we need a third party” elites are simply out of touch, unable or unwilling to see that a big-tent party already exists. The Democratic Party often comes across as disjointed—or, dare I say, in disarray—but that’s because it’s the party of the 60%. If only the 60% realized that.
Any updates?
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As some House Republicans’ support for Trump’s cruel tax bill is waffling, the public appears to be starkly against it. Fifty-three percent of voters oppose the legislation, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. However, the really bad sign for Trump is that just 27% support the bill, with the remaining 20% unsure. In fact, only 2 in 3 Republican voters (67%) support the bill. Seems bad!
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Trump has called in the National Guard and Marine Corps to assist federal agents in a brutal immigration crackdown in Los Angeles, and early polling found Americans were widely skeptical of the military deployments. Additional polling confirms that response: 44% of Americans are opposed to the deployments, while 41% support them, according to a new poll from The Washington Post/Schar School. Among Californians, 58% oppose the deployments, and just 32% support them.
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Trump’s economic agenda is pushing the country closer to a recession—so close that most Americans think either that we’re in a recession (36%) or that one is likely in the next 12 months (27%), according to the latest YouGov/Economist poll.
Vibe check
Though Musk may have deluded himself into believing his hard-right politics are shared by “80%” of Americans, the public itself isn’t too hot on his brief tenure in the Trump administration.
Pluralities of Americans think Musk had “too much” influence in Trump’s White House (49%) and that his work in the government did more harm than good (46%), according to new data from YouGov.
On top of that, as of Friday, only 37.1% of the public has a favorable view of Musk, while 55.2% has a negative view, according to election analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.