NFL Win/Loss Preview Series: Dallas Cowboys originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
As someone who just cashed a ‘Dallas To Miss The Playoffs’ ticket in 2024, I’m still skeptical they’ve gotten a full game better — the Cowboys’ brass didn’t do nearly enough in addressing those same concerns to turn around a top-heavy team against an incredibly tough division.
COWBOYS’ WIN/LOSS ODDS:
- Over 7.5 Wins: (-140)
- Over 9.5 Wins: (+190)
When it comes to professional teams with widespread national appeal like the Cowboys (or even the Yankees for that matter), my first thought’s always towards the under. No matter what they seem to do (or not do), the market can’t help itself from exuding irrational exuberance — something not generally afforded to teams that just finished so poorly statistically on both sides of the ball.
Last year, my main concern regarding the Boys revolved around overly top-heavy roster construction. Sure, having all-world superstars like CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons never hurts, but you can’t win in the NFL with outright deficiencies in critical phases of the game — chief among them, the run game.
Dallas jettisoned Tony Pollard for the fourth coming of Zeke Elliott, only to luck out on a very productive UDFA in Rico Dowdle. And how does DAL respond to finding buried backfield treasure? Well, of course, they sent him packing only to pay even more cash for RB Javonte Williams, the former Bronco tailback coming off a truly atrocious season (3.7 yards/rush, -0.18 EPA/attempt, 41% success rate). And while I’d be remiss to omit fifth-round draft selection Jaydon Blue from Texas, expectations for picks that late remain exceedingly low for a reason. Someone please explain it to me like I’m five.
The Cowboys’ defense also stunk, finishing second-to-last in points allowed per game (27.5 PPG) due to a plethora of bottom-tier finishes across the spreadsheet: 5.8 yards/play, -0.05 EPA/play, 56.4% defensive rush success rate, 137.1 rushing yards allowed/game, 99.5 opposer passer rating, 68.2% completion rate and 11,2 yards per completion (among many others). Laundry list of putrid stats aside, consider me unconvinced.
The front office brass shored up the trenches by signing FAs Dante Fowler (DE) and Solomon Thomas (DT) but didn’t do nearly enough in the secondary this offseason to sell me on suppressing the prolific passing offenses in the game today.
LAGHEZZA’S LEAN:
If Dallas played in the AFC South we’d be having a completely different conversation, but they don’t so we won’t. Without the ability to control clock via the ground game and hold onto any small leads they possess, I can’t see betting the ‘Boys to get Over 7.5 Wins — especially given the (-140) premium attached. Hard pass on any overs, my best bet here is DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+130) on MGM
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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 13, 2025, where it first appeared.